Even with Tom Brady suspended the first month of the season, the New England Patriots are still the second choice of oddsmakers to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That speaks volumes for the task an Arizona Cardinals team will be forced to deal with after taking a huge dump in the NFC Championship Game. The home crowd will expect nothing but excellence, but you can bet your bottom dollar Bill Belichick will have something up his sleeve to keep this Week 1 tilt interesting all the way through.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Sunday, September 11, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at U of Phoenix Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots +5.5
Arizona Cardinals -5.5
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
The pointspread for this Sunday nighter opened at -5.5 in favor of the home team at -115 vig. The Cardinals got some early play from the betting public raising Bruce Arians’ squad to as high as 6.5 point home chalk, but it was quickly bet back down to -5.5. As public a team the Patriots are, it wouldn’t surprise in the least if this line dropped a bit more before kick-off.
The game total initially opened at 48 and was quickly bet down to 47.5 where it’s sat ever since. Both New England and Arizona were ranked amongst the top 10 in scoring defense a year ago and returns a bulk of each unit. Six of New England’s nine road games played to the over last season, while the Cards cashed under tickets in five of their nine home games.
Injury Report
Tom Brady – We’ve been listening about “Deflategate” for what feels like a decade now. He’ll finally serve his suspension opening the door for Jimmy Garoppolo to strut his stuff the first four weeks of the season. He’s proven capable in the preseason completing 36 of 54 passes for 406 yards and one touchdown without an interception. He still has some fabulous targets to get the ball to, so expect Josh McDaniels to set him up with an efficient plan of attack.
John Brown – Arizona possessed the league’s second ranked pass attack in 2015. While all of the major players return in 2016, it’s possible Carson Palmer is without one of his favorite deep threats whose suffered from concussion symptoms at the tail end of the preseason. Right now he’s listed as probable to suit up for this one, but make it a point to see if he’s actually a go. His absence will allow the strength of New England’s defense – the secondary – to make life even harder on a shaky Palmer.
Player to Watch
Seriously, what the heck’s going on with Carson Palmer? His play single handedly cost the Cardinals against Carolina in the NFC Championship Game last January. He was dreadful completing just 57.5 percent of his passes for one touchdown – in the 4th quarter with Zona down 27 points – and then looked wretched once again in the team’s Week 3 dress rehearsal in Houston where he completed just 5 of 9 passes for 64 yards and was picked off twice.
Now, David Johnson is a do-it-all every down back, but this offense butters its bread with its aerial attack. If Palmer isn’t able to get in a rhythm with Larry Fitzgerald and Malcolm Floyd, Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan will make his life a living hell. Especially if the Pats are able to consistently generate pressure and force him into errant throws.
Free ATS Pick
The Cardinals won six of their eight home games in the regular season and added another in the postseason against Green Bay. However, the NFC runner-ups weren’t good bets in front of the hometown faithful managing just three pointspread covers during that stretch. Against teams that went to the playoffs last season, the Cards managed just one cover through five tries.
I’m expecting this one to play out much the same way. New England might be without its QB1, but still brings a heck of a team to the desert that checks in 5-1 SU and ATS the last six times it went off the board dogged. Their defense will be up to the challenge of combating a potent Cardinals offense, and Garoppolo’s heady play will limit costly mistakes. Look for this one to go down to the wire and for the Pats to have an excellent shot at stealing the outright win.
NFL Odds: Cardinals 23, Patriots 20
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