The New England Patriots journey west to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1. The Patriots have visited University of Phoenix Stadium on just two occasions, both Super Bowls. This will be their first trip since winning Super Bowl XLIX.
Sunday also marks the first meeting between these two teams since 2012 when the Cardinals topped the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, 20-18, snapping New England’s five game winning streak in head-to-head matchups.
Watch this regular season Week 1 matchup live on Sunday, September 11, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at University of Phoenix Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots +6
Arizona Cardinals -6
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
After opening even, we’ve seen the line grow into a touchdown advantage for the Cardinals at home as bettors are reluctant to trust a New England team without Brady under center.
Just how important is Brady to this offense? There’s no question he’s a winning player with the ability to make those around him better, but there’s precedent for a New England team without Brady. Matt Cassel led the Pats to a 11-5 record in 2008 after Brady went down in Week 1.
Of course, the weapons are different than those available to Jimmy Garoppolo. He has Rob Gronkowski, but no Wes Welker or Randy Moss. Instead, the defense needs to shoulder the load and with that, it’s no surprise the total has also seen movement since the lines opened, dropping a point and a half from 48.5 to 47. Dropping much below that, however, could make the over very appealing as the Pats secondary is in question without Darrelle Revis and with Malcolm Butler struggling in preseason action in matchups with longer receivers.
Injury Report
Tom Brady – This isn’t an injury, but it’s the biggest factor in this game by far as Brady misses the first game in his four game suspension. Brady and Bill Belichick are the masterminds of this offense that seems to produce regardless of who is catching or carrying the ball. Brady makes his receivers better, but with Brady out, the Patriots will hope to get enough offensive production with Garoppolo under center, but with a limited running game, a flawed defense will be leaned on to shoulder a larger load.
New England’s biggest weakness last year was their ability to protect the quarterback. With Brady under center they’ve got some leeway there, but not so much with Garoppolo. The ability of Gronkowski to get open despite likely heavy attention is key to give him a big target to dump the ball off to should the pocket collapse.
John Brown – While not as crucial to this game as Brady, Brown’s loss is a significant one. The Patriots have a weakness in the secondary without Revis, but the loss of Brown at wideout would cut into the Cardinals advantage there as New England hopes Butler can contain Fitzgerald.
Brown is one of the game’s best young wide receivers, but he remains out of the picture after the team entered him into the concussion protocol. He claims to feel fine, but has yet to be cleared to play. If he’s rule ineligible, J.J. Nelson and Jaron Brown are ready, but don’t offer the same playmaking ability as the other Brown.
Matchup to Watch
While the Patriots are turning to Garoppolo to keep them afloat without Brady, he’ll have a weakened offensive line to protect him. Sebastian Vollmer is on the physically-unable-to-perform list, leaving the team short-handed at a very important position.
While Vollmer’s injury is a big blow, the team also saw Nate Solder leave the team’s final preseason game. If he’s also out as well, that’ll leave LaAdrian Waddle and Cameron Fleming to fill in alongside Marcus Cannon. Cannon himself has shown an inability to stop top pass rushers.
Speaking of top pass rushers, the Cardinals have the very definition of one of those in Chandler Jones who, on top of a career high 12.5 sacks last year, knows the Patriots very well after spending four seasons with them, including two with double digit sack numbers.
This is a clear mismatch that the Cardinals can exploit. New England could bring the tight-end into the blocking game more often, but that takes away a significant weapon for New England who loves using their tight ends in the passing game.
Overall, you have an inexperienced quarterback and lack the necessary protection around him to afford him time to avoid key mistakes that lead directly to losses.
Free ATS Pick
The storylines for this game are endless. You have a Brady-less Patriots offense, Chandler Jones motivation and matchup against a depleted line, and Malcolm Butler’s matchup against Larry Fitzgerald given the height mismatch.
All of these storylines are worth watching and all seem to have a negative impact on the Patriots.
Look for Belichick to do his thing, get creative and make things happen on offense to keep this game closer than it otherwise should be, but ultimately there’s too much stacked against his team, even for someone with his level of ingenuity.
The weakened offensive line wasn’t exactly a strength of this team last year and the injuries make it worse. The Cardinals have a collection of players able to penetrate the line and get to the quarterback. Garoppolo doesn’t have the experience or talent to come out of that unscathed; particularly not in his first regular season start and that start being on the road, too.
Arizona is way too good of a team at home. They’ve gone 19-5 at home over the past three seasons. While a Patriots team with Brady has a shot against the Cardinals, one without him simply does not.
It feels wrong to bet against the Patriots, but given what they’re up against its the right move. Take the Cardinals to win and cover the spread, but if it continues to grow, go ahead and look for Belichick to do enough to at least keep it within shouting distance. Whenever you completely count out New England is when it comes back to bite you.
NFL Odds: Cardinals 27, Patriots 19
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