The Kansas City Chiefs needed an epic late-season run to escape a horrible start and qualify for the playoffs a season ago. The talented team isn’t expected to struggle like that out of the gate again. The Chiefs are one of the biggest Week 1 regular season favorites when they face off with the San Diego Chargers.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Sunday, September 11, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chargers +6.5
Chiefs -6.5
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The line is an interesting one, as a touchdown-margin would give the Chiefs a narrow cover, and it seems like the game could very well end in that vicinity. However, the majority gamblers are backing the Chargers as the spread is pretty high.
The “over” is getting more than 77 percent of the action as many expect more scoring than the oddsmakers are giving these teams credit for. The Chiefs have a very good defense but Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is a veteran who can move the ball effectively.
Even though the odds are set at -290, nearly 60 percent of bettors are jumping on the Chiefs on the money line.
Injury Report
Jamaal Charles -- The Chiefs’ running back tore his ACL early last season and missed the majority of the year. He was expected to be ready for this opener but now coach Andy Reid is pessimistic about his chances. Charles is an excellent running back and his absence would hurt, although Kansas City was fine without him last year.
Branden Oliver -- The Chargers’ third-down back suffered an Achilles injury during the preseason and will miss the entire year. San Diego will heavily rely on veteran Danny Woodhead and last year’s first-round pick, Melvin Gordon, to lead the way with the running game.
Player to Watch
Keenan Allen. The Chiefs have a really good defense and the Chargers don’t have a great running game, so in order to pull the upset, it seems San Diego will need to get something going through the air.
Allen had 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie in 2013 and was at a blistering pace last year, catching 67 passes for 725 yards in eight games, but a kidney injury shelved him for the second half.
The Chiefs lost Sean Smith in free agency and he was one of their best cornerbacks. It will be intriguing to see how Allen does in his regular season return, and a big game from him may be able to keep the Chargers within striking distance.
Free ATS Pick
Even if the Chiefs don’t have Charles, there is plenty of other talent on the roster. Kansas City hit a groove in last year’s second half and made it to the AFC Divisional round before falling to the New England Patriots.
The expectation is for them to once again be in contention for a playoff spot, and the AFC West could be had since the Broncos have lost some key pieces off last year’s Super Bowl championship team.
The Chargers performed poorly in 2015 and it will take a big effort from offensive stars Rivers, Allen and tight end Antonio Gates to help turn it around. Kansas City is understandably a sizable favorite in this contest, and while they should be able to pull out the win, don’t expect it to be easy.
The Chargers will cover and could put a scare into the Chiefs in this contest. The “over” might be getting the big money right now, but the Chiefs are a conservative offense and this one will more than likely finish “under” the total.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20
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