The Atlanta Falcons got off to a quick start in 2015 before faltering badly down the stretch. They will aim for the same hot beginning but more prolonged success this year. It all begins in Week 1 of the regular season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons are a slight favorite based on the home field advantage, but oddsmakers believe the talent level on these teams is very close.
This matchup in Week 1 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, September 11, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3
Atlanta Falcons -3
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
Even though the juice is up to -115 on Tampa Bay, nearly 55 percent of bettors are currently leaning that direction. The “over” on the point total is clearly the more popular play, while a money line payoff of +140 on the Buccaneers is enticing 78 percent of gamblers.
The Buccaneers have a young, talented quarterback in Jameis Winston, and the bettors seem to believe he can help start the season quickly in Tampa Bay with an upset win. The over-under is higher than the majority of the other games on Sunday and the public still likes the “over” as many are predicting a shootout.
Injury Report
J.R. Sweezy -- The Buccaneers gave the guard a five-year, $32.5 million contract in free agency to help lock down the offensive line, but he is injured and is expected to miss this game. Winston is a pocket passer and Tampa Bay must keep him upright while also paving holes for running back Doug Martin. The loss of Sweezy doesn’t help that cause.
Keanu Neal -- The Falcons’ first-round pick was hurt late in the preseason and could miss up to a month with a right knee ailment. The Atlanta defense is its weak spot and Neal was drafted to help bolster it, but he is not expected to play against the Buccaneers.
Player to Watch
The Buccaneers are going to give up plays to Atlanta’s all-world wide receiver, Julio Jones. He finished last season with 136 catches for 1,871 yards and eight touchdowns and doesn’t figure to slow down in 2016.
The Falcons can really get it rolling if their ground game excels, so it will be interesting to see how Tampa Bay does corralling Devonta Freeman. He ran for 1,056 yards and 11 touchdowns and was a threat through the air in 2015, but slowed down as the season wore on.
The Buccaneers were second in the NFL a season ago in rush defense, allowing only 3.4 yards per carry. If they can bottle up Freeman, it will force Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan into dangerous third-and-longs, which will give the advantage to the Bucs’ secondary.
Free ATS Pick
The Falcons have the duo of Jones and Ryan to lead the way offensively, and All-Pro center Alex Mack was signed in free agency to boost the offensive line. However, the Falcons still have holes defensively, and Winston should be able to take a significant step forward this year.
Mike Evans is his go-to wide receiver while Doug Martin is back to lead the ground game. As long as the Buccaneers’ secondary can hold up, the team is primed to pull off the upset. Tampa Bay will aim to give new coach Dirk Koetter a win in his debut, even on the road.
While this one should be close, the Falcons’ defensive issues from a season ago could rear their ugly head again and drop the team to 0-1 after such a hot start last year. The “over” is the smart play to take advantage of a game which could have plenty of scoring.
NFL Odds: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 24
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