Bettors love the New England Patriots, even in the preseason. New England is the biggest favorite of the first full week of NFL preseason action and its game against the Jacksonville Jaguars is also the only one all week with a total over 40. Money is slowly starting to come in on the Jaguars though and the spread should narrow by a half-point or so by kickoff on Thursday as sharps take advantage of a slightly inflated line. Will the public cash their tickets on Friday morning or will the sharps rule the day in this game?
This matchup in Week 1 of the preseason will take place on Thursday, August 10, 2017,
at 7:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
Week 1 NFL Preseason Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +5
New England Patriots -5
Over/Under 40.5
Odds Analysis
In his 17-year tenure as the head coach of the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick has done well in the preseason. Belichick has an overall record of 39-31 and has only posted one losing record in preseason since 2009. In 2016, he went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS last season with a 23-22 win over Chicago counting as a win but not a cover.
Doug Marrone is the new head coach in Jacksonville after the Gus Bradley era finally came to an end. Marrone was in charge of the Buffalo Bills in 2013 and 2014 and was good in the regular season relatively speaking. In the preseason though, he went just 3-6.
Player to Watch
Jaguars fans can’t wait for the debut of Leonard Fournette. The Jaguars haven’t had a running back break 1,000 yards since Maurice Jones-Drew did it in 2011 and the lack of a running game has really hurt this team’s chances of becoming a contender once again. Blake Bortles’ ceiling is as an average quarterback in the NFL and without a capable running game he is being asked to do way too much.
Fournette was a star at LSU and the stories about his high school days in Louisiana are similar to what you hear from people who saw Bo Jackson at that level. He was banged up for most of his last collegiate season so there is some excitement to see him shake off the rust and see what he can do against the best athletes in the game.
He will only see limited action, but it’s worth watching every time he totes the ball.
Matchup to Watch
The Jaguars secondary and the Patriots receiving corps each picked up a major addition in the offseason.
Jacksonville spent big money on former Texans’ cornerback AJ Bouye in the offseason and the franchise thinks it has a pair of lockdown cornerbacks. Bouye was very good in his time with Houston and he will team up with Jalen Ramsey to make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks.
Belichick and company decided to give Tom Brady another weapon to work with this season and the Patriots should have one of the top receiving corps in the NFL with the addition of Brandin Cooks. Cooks was a star for New Orleans throughout his time there and has the speed to stretch defenses. He opens up the field for Brady in ways that Julian Edelman or Rob Gronkowski can’t and could put up huge numbers.
Watching New England’s receivers go at Jacksonville’s cornerbacks should be fun all game long, especially since the Patriots have some competent quarterbacks behind Brady.
Free ATS Pick
Yes, it’s the Patriots, but this is too many points to lay in the postseason. Jacksonville might be able to get to .500 this season and Marrone is going to want to look good in his first game as a head coach, even if it is preseason. Look for the Jaguars to not only cover the spread, but pull off a slight upset here.
Week 1 NFL Preseason Odds: Jaguars 23, Patriots 20
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