Before the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suited up for their last game they were thinking about making a charge up the NFC South standings. Following a humiliating home loss to the Falcons, the Bucs are now looking to stay out of the basement in the division. They’re also looking to avoid a third straight loss on their current home stand, which was supposed to catapult them into relevancy. The Bucs have lost six consecutive games at home dating back to last season while going 0-6 ATS. They’ll try and break the spell during a Week 10 matchup with the Chicago Bears.
This contest in Week 10 of the regular season will go down Sunday, November 13, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.
Odds Analysis
Jameis Winston left the last game with an injury and his status hasn’t been updated. Because of that the spread and total have yet to hit the board. I expect the Bucs to be a slight favorite, but they certainly don’t have a home field edge. Tampa Bay is 0-6 SU and ATS in its last six home outings with one of those losses coming against the Bears last season.
Injury Report
Tracy Porter – Limped off the field during the last game with an apparent leg injury and his absence hurts a young Bears secondary. By far the team’s best corner, Porter is also a coach on the field, assisting the young players on how to play the position. The Bucs won’t have much of a running game and will need to throw the ball. Plays are out there if Porter isn’t on the field.
Antone Smith – A season-ending injury to a running back as far down the depth chart as Smith normally wouldn’t be a concern. But for the Bucs, Smith is the fourth back to be injured this season leaving Peyton Barber as the likely starter against the Bears. Doug Martin could be back, but his effectiveness will be limited, as will Tampa Bay’s run game.
Matchup to Watch
The Bucs were supposed to be better on the defensive side of the ball. They had the makings of a solid unit with athletic play-makers, drafted a No. 1 corner in Vernon Hargreaves and signed Robert Ayers in free agency. But you never know what the injury bug is going to do and for the Bucs, the defense has been hit especially hard. Ayers missed several games with an ankle injury and Jacquies Smith was put on injured reserved. The bad news kept coming after last game when reserve lineman Howard Jones was lost with a knee injury.
As a whole the group has regressed from last season and was shredded for a total of nearly 1,100 total yards in the last two games. On the bright side, if there is one, the Bucs faced two explosive teams in the Raiders and Falcons, but the numbers don’t lie and the Bucs haven’t been very good. Over the past two games, Tampa Bay has given up 20 plays of 18 yards or more, by far the most in the league. Part of the problem is a failure to get a consistent pass rush. With three of the four projected starting linemen out, the Bears will take shots down the field with Jay Cutler back in the lineup.
Free ATS Pick
With Cutler back, the Bears showed signs of life on offense and used a balanced attack to carve up the stingy Vikings defense in a Monday night win before their bye. Chicago played itself out of a chance at the postseason by losing six of its first seven games, but with Cutler directing the offense, the Bears are a much different team. Sure, Brian Hoyer put up decent numbers during his time as the starter, but Cutler gives them a better chance at winning than anyone on that roster. And he rallied the troops against Minnesota.
What makes the Bears even scarier is that they are getting several of their defensive studs back in the lineup. Pernell McPhee made his season debut two weeks ago and Danny Trevathan appears to be over the thumb injury that limited his effectiveness. The Bears will need to generate a pass rush against Winston to help out their secondary, which remains thin and could be in worse shape if Porter doesn’t play. The Bears did a number of things well on offense against the Vikings and with Cutler showing a little fire in his game and Jordan Howard rolling in the ground attack, Tampa’s leaky defense is primed for another disaster.
NFL Odds: Bears 26, Buccaneers 22
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