At least the Cincinnati Bengals picked a good time to have a down year. With the rest of the AFC North struggling, Cincy remains right in the thick of the race despite being a game under .500 with a tie. The Bengals also had the week to recover while the rest of the division was duking it out. The division is still up for grabs but the Bengals have put themselves in a hole and they need to start digging out before it’s too late. Cincy was considered a favorite in the AFC before the season began and they have the second half to make it happen. It starts with a Week 10 matchup against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup live on Monday, November 14, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals +2
New York Giants -2
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
We’ve seen movement on the line in hurry with the spread wagered down a full point with early money on the visitors. The number of bets has evened out so it’s unlikely we’ll see much more movement on the spread. The total is tricky on this one with the Bengals playing over the scoreline in each of their last three games. I expect Cincy to be stronger after the bye and the Giants will be limited in the big play department, keeping the score under the total.
Injury Report
Victor Cruz – The Giants’ third-leading receiver hurt his ankle against the Eagles and was forced from the game. After missing all of last season, Cruz had become a key piece in New York’s three-receiver sets and is averaging 15.1 yards per catch, his highest since 2011-12. Cruz is doing a nice job of drawing attention away from Odell Beckham Jr. while still producing in the passing game.
Justin Pugh – New York will also be without their starting guard after Pugh sprained his knee on Sunday. He’s part of an offensive line that has surrendered just 12 sacks this season, the second-fewest in the league.
Player to Watch
Take a target like Tyler Eifert out of the equation and it’s not surprising the Bengals struggled in the red zone. With the Pro Bowl tight end back to full game action, the Bengals had a drastic change in their red zone success, scoring all four times inside the Redskins 20-yard line during their last game. And it was less of a surprise that Eifert provided one of those scores on a 15-yard toss from Andy Dalton. Eifert was the go-to guy in the red zone last season with 11 scoring grabs within 20 yards, and he provided a level of comfort for Dalton near the goal line.
Eifert’s absence during the first seven weeks of the season was partially responsible for the Bengals ranking near the bottom of the league in red zone touchdown percentage. Other weapons like Mohammad Sanu and Marvin Jones Jr. are no longer with the team, the running game has been inconsistent and the offensive line hasn’t been as stout as it was in 2015, but Eifert should help the Bengals move up the rankings now that he’s recovered from the ankle injury that sidelined him. Even if Eifert doesn’t put up the numbers, he’s a force near the goal line and will draw attention from defenders opening other avenues for the Bengals to score.
Free ATS Pick
There is some life in the Giants’ offense after all. Behind four touchdown passes from Eli Manning, Big Blue put up its largest point total of the season in a 28-23 win over the Eagles on Sunday. But New York got plenty of help from Philly in that contest. The Giants still have no ground game and it’s hard to win when you can’t run the football. With Cruz gimpy from an ankle injury, the passing game loses a big piece and the Bengals have one less thing to worry about.
The O line has done a nice job protecting Manning this season even though opponents know he has to throw. That could be dangerous now that Pugh is out and the Bengals will bring pressure after getting carved up by Kirk Cousins in their last game. Cincy’s offense is back to near full strength with Eifert’s return and he is a difference-maker for the Bengals in the red zone. Watch for the Bengals to convert touchdowns and if Mike Nugent gets his kicking game straightened out, Cincy escapes the Big Apple with a straight up win.
NFL Odds: Bengals 24, Giants 22
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