The Denver Broncos vaunted defense was showing cracks prior to last week’s game and the Raiders just bore those into gaping holes. Denver was manhandled and left the Bay Area with bruised egos following a loss that dropped them into a strange place – third in the AFC West. Denver’s fragile group now gets to tangle with the NFL’s No. 1 ranked offense when they visit the New Orleans Saints in a Week 10 matchup.
This matchup in Week 10 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, November 13, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos +1.5
New Orleans Saints -1.5
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
The Saints are getting some love from bettors following their surge with 56 percent of the spread bets on the home team. New Orleans has won its backers plenty of coin recently going 5-0 ATS in its last five and 6-2 ATS overall. Denver is banged up and looking ahead to its bye so the Saints at -1.5 look favorable. New Orleans has scored a bushel of points in the Superdome with the over 3-1 in the Saints four home games. The total seems high and with both teams looking to run the ball, probably out of reach at 49.
Injury Report
Aqib Talib – Denver’s Pro Bowl cornerback missed the Raiders game with sore back and isn’t expected to play against the Saints. Kayvon Webster is also nursing a sore hamstring leaving the Broncos secondary thin just in time for a showdown with Drew Brees and the top-ranked offensive unit in the NFL.
Derek Wolfe – The Broncos’ defense suffered another punch to the gut when end Derek Wolfe suffered a fractured elbow in the Raiders game. Wolfe has 4.5 sacks this season and has been a menace on the line. His pass rushing ability will be missed against the Saints attack.
Matchup to Watch
Sean Payton and the Saints coaching staff felt the team was too one-dimensional on offense, relying heavily on the right arm of Brees. The Saints made an effort to get the running game in gear and it’s paid off big time. Behind Tim Hightower, the Saints ran for 123 yards in a win over the Seahawks two weeks ago. They showed off their improved run game Sunday against the 49ers, going for 248 yards with Mark Ingram doing the bulk of the work with 158 yards, including a 75-yard scamper where he wasn’t touched.
The Raiders aren’t considered a running team, yet they ripped the Broncos for 218 yards with Latavius Murray going for 114 and three scores on 20 carries. The Saints will try the same approach behind their two-pronged attack and if successful, the play-action plays will set up nicely for Brees and his talented group of receivers. With Wolfe and Talib out of action, the Saints should be able to score enough to claim a victory.
Free ATS Pick
As bad as the Broncos were defensively against the Raiders Sunday night, the offense was worse. Going against an Oakland defense that has improved since the opening of the season but still ranks near the bottom of the league in several categories, the Broncos could do nothing early on, fell into a hole, and couldn’t escape. Overall the numbers were decent, but four three-and-outs on their first four possessions were disturbing. More frustrating was Denver’s inability to run the football. Teams need balance to keep defenses honest and right now the Broncos don’t have that.
Denver’s run game could improve against the leaky Saints defense, but New Orleans is getting stronger on that side of the ball with the return last week of top draft pick Sheldon Rankins and Delvin Breaux. And speaking of balance, the Saints found it last week with a run game that produced 248 yards while amassing 571 total. It was the Niners, but the output was impressive nonetheless. Without several key defenders, the Broncos looked ordinary against Oakland. Expect the Saints to take notice and exploit that for another win.
NFL Odds: Saints 26, Broncos 22
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