The fate of the San Diego Chargers to remain in the city rests in the hands of voters to approve a hotel tax to help fund a new stadium. If that fails, it could be the end of the team in America’s most attractive city. At least the Chargers did their part in the final game before voting day, knocking off the Titans for their third win in four outings. When they take the field for the Week 10 contest with the Miami Dolphins, the Chargers will have a clearer picture of their future.
Watch this regular season Week 10 matchup live on Sunday, November 13, 2016, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +3.5
San Diego Chargers -3.5
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
The Dolphins haven’t played a road game since Week 4 and that has to play a big role in the outcome of this contest. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and this should be a good game, but as long as the Chargers don’t look ahead to their bye, I like them at home giving the 3.5-points. San Diego has received plenty of early action but the sharps have knocked the spread down from its opening of -4. The Chargers have cashed the over in seven of nine games this season and this one is no different.
Injury Report
Jelani Jenkins – The Dolphins could be without their starting linebacker after he sustained a hand injury and possible concussion against the Jets. Jenkins had been used in nickel packages as a premier pass defender, but was elevated to the starting role because of his play. The Dolphins could be susceptible to the short passing game with San Diego’s tight ends in his absence.
Travis Benjamin – San Diego’s leading receiver left the Tennessee game with an apparent knee injury after one catch and didn’t return. Benjamin has been dealing with a sprained PCL that limited his practice time and his loss would be blow to Philip Rivers and the passing game. With the Chargers bye following this game, it’s possible he doesn’t play.
Matchup to Watch
A healthy offensive line and the emergence of Jay Ajayi have propelled the Dolphins to a three-game winning streak and they reached the .500 mark for the first time this season. The retirement of Arian Foster bumped Ajayi into the featured role and he’s been money the past three games, helping the Fins average better than 28 points per outing in that span. Ajayi failed to make NFL history as the Dolphins came from behind to beat the Jets. He was looking to become the first player to rush for 200 yards in three straight games, but instead settled for 111 and a touchdown as the Fins evened their record at 4-4.
And it’s no coincidence that Ajayi’s success has been due to the line finally being together. Injuries to Mike Pouncey, Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil hindered the group’s effectiveness earlier in the year, but the three played together for the first time in Week 6 helping Ajayi to a 204-yard rushing game against the Steelers. That has taken a lot of pressure off Ryan Tannehill in the passing game and the Dolphins have produced their best offensive stretch of the season. Running the football will be key to keeping Rivers and the Chargers’ offense off the field, but it won’t be easy. San Diego held DeMarco Murray to 51 yards on 14 carries and surrenders just 85 yards per game on the ground.
Free ATS Pick
The Dolphins hit the road for the first time in six weeks when they visit San Diego. They finished off their rare four-game home stand with three wins and also had a bye week thrown in. Travelling will seem like something new to this group, but at least they cured their ills and have fans hopeful of a possible playoff berth if the solid play continues.
Shifting away from the passing game and reliance on Tannehill to win – or lose – games, the Dolphins have become a smash-mouth football team that loves to run the football. But as we’ve seen, the dependence on the five-man group that makes up the line is risky. Also, Ajayi has never been the featured back and this is all new to him. Meanwhile, the Chargers have figured out a way to win games instead of giving them away and Rivers has been aided by a solid running game led by Melvin Gordon. San Diego has a balanced attack it’s been longing for and the offense has clicked. The teams will try to run the football but we’ve seen defense and special teams play a big role for each. Points from those areas will push the over in this one.
NFL Odds: Chargers 30, Dolphins 24
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