The schedule couldn’t have worked out better for the Arizona Cardinals. Coming off their bye with a chance to regroup for a second half push, the Cards get the scuffling San Francisco 49ers in their first game back. Just because the Niners are on the docket doesn’t make it automatic, but the Bay Area team has been helpless to stop opposing offenses this season and the Cards sure could use a breather. Arizona goes for the season sweep when the clubs meet in Week 10 in the desert.
This contest in Week 10 of the regular season will go down Sunday, November 13, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at University of Phoenix Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Francisco 49ers +13
Arizona Cardinals -13
Over/Under 48.5
Odds Analysis
If the Niners had anyone on their bandwagon, they are leaping off quickly. The spread opened at Arizona -12.5 and the early money was all over the home team, forcing the line to spike a half point. The line is the highest on the board and given San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in its last six games with two double-digit lines in there, it isn’t surprising. Arizona covered the 3.5-point line when the teams first met, but they play down to their competition at home.
Injury Report
Arik Armstead – Credit the Niners 2015 first-round pick for giving it a go, but the shoulder injury apparently is too much. Armstead left Sunday’s game early in obvious discomfort from the ailment that’s been nagging him since training camp. Like his mates on defense, he’s been ineffective against the run, but he’s been on the field so he’s probably the best option. Now he may be gone, meaning the Niners could be worse against the run, if that’s even possible.
Tyrann Mathieu – The Cardinals safety can’t seem to avoid the injury bug. Mathieu left the Panthers game with a partially dislocated shoulder and will be on the shelf for a few weeks. Even the bye wasn’t enough to get him ready for the Niners. The Cards secondary will have to watch out for Colin Kaepernick, who took apart the Saints for 398 yards through the air.
Matchup to Watch
For the first time in many years the Cardinals have a premier back and they will ride David Johnson as long they can. The second-year back had his string of three straight 100 yard rushing games end in the loss at Carolina, but the Cards struggled all over the place and were forced to abandon the run game while trying to play catch up. Against the Niners, the Cards should stick to their game plan of running the football against the weakest group of run stoppers in the NFL.
The 49ers allegedly addressed their problems during the bye, but knowing what the problem is and fixing it are two entirely different things. The Niners kept their streak of allowing a 100-yard rusher alive by letting Mark Ingram scamper for 158 on just 15 carries. Ingram broke off a 75-yard run to pad his numbers and the Saints totaled 248 yards on the ground and 571 total in their 41-23 win over San Francisco. Ingram became the seventh back in as many games to reach the century mark against the Niners defense. When the teams first met in Week 5, Johnson ran for 157 yards and totaled 28 more on three receptions. He leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage with 1,112.
Free ATS Pick
Entering the season it was expected the Niners defense would be the anchor while the offense worked out the kinks. Well, half way through the season it’s safe to say the defense has been absolutely terrible. Sure they had injuries with two top linebackers lost for the year early on, but the group was lousy even with NaVorro Bowman and Ray-Ray Armstrong playing. Now, they are just downright horrible. The Niners are last in run defense and total defense and allow a league-worst 32.5 points per game. And that includes the season-opening shutout of the Rams.
San Francisco is ranked 11th in pass defense, but teams don’t throw the football when they can run all over the Niners. The offense showed signs against the Saints, but New Orleans has a defense that ranks right up there with San Fran’s, so take that 486 yard outburst with a grain of salt. The Cards needed some down time following a shaky loss at Carolina and should benefit from the off week and playing the 49ers. But a two touchdown favorite is an awful lot when the Cards are just 2-3 ATS at home.
NFL Odds: Cardinals 30, 49ers 20
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