Dak Prescott has pretty much silenced any talk of a quarterback situation with the Dallas Cowboys, leading the club to a team record-tying eight-game winning streak. The Boys are likely to have one of the oldest and highest-paid backups when Tony Romo is activated and that could be as early as this week. Both players and management say the scenario won’t cause a problem, but one has to wonder what direction the Boys take when Prescott has a hiccup. That could come against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11.
This contest in Week 11 of the regular season will go down Sunday, November 20, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at ATT Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baltimore Ravens +7.5
Dallas Cowboys -7.5
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
With the exception of last week’s rout of Cleveland, every Ravens game has been a one score affair. The defense has kept them in all of those games and gives Baltimore a chance, so the opening line seems a bit high. Still, the Cowboys are getting 78 percent of the spread wagers driving the line up a half point to Dallas -7.5.
Injury Report
Alex Lewis – The rookie offensive lineman moved into a starting role at left guard but sustained a high ankle sprain last game and is out for several weeks. It’s another blow to a line that’s already missing Pro Bowl right guard Marshall Yanda with a shoulder ailment. The Ravens will have two reserves in the middle of the line going against the Cowboys active defensive front.
Geoff Swaim – The Cowboys will be without their tight end after he suffered a torn pectoral muscle. Swaim had just six catches this season, but he’s been a big part of the successful running game when the team runs two-tight end sets. His loss will impact that part of Dallas’ game and leaves a hole at the position with likely replacement Gavin Escobar seeing much less playing time.
Matchup to Watch
The Cowboys have taken the best shot from all their opponents and, with the exception of the season opener, they’ve come out ahead in all of them. The rookie duo of Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott is reminding everyone in Big D of the 90s glory days of Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith. Forget about Rookie of the Year, Prescott and Elliott are the front runners for the league MVP at this point. After their stunning comeback win at Pittsburgh on the strength of three Elliott touchdowns, the Cowboys’ dynamic twosome will get another test from an AFC North squad.
Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and the Cowboys are the top ranked rushing team in the league. They’re also third in total offense and fourth in scoring. The Ravens and their top-ranked defense are next in line for Prescott, Elliott and Co. to conquer. Baltimore now owns the stingiest D in the league in terms of rushing yards and total yards. They rank fourth in points allowed and fifth in pass defense. The group has to pick up the slack from an inconsistent offense and they realize playing well will result in a victory. The narrative for this one is fairly simple. If the Ravens can slow down the Cowboys, their odds of winning improve dramatically. Baltimore is 4-1 when allowing fewer than 20 points and 1-3 when it doesn’t.
Free ATS Pick
The game plan is simple for the Ravens: limit the explosive plays from Prescott and Elliott and hold the Cowboys to fewer than 20 points. If they can do that they’ll have a good shot at a victory. Of course, that’s much easier said than done against a stacked offense with the best line in the league. But it might not be too far off. Dallas has had a ton of success on offense but they’ve faced just one team that currently has a top-10 ranked defense and six of the teams are currently ranked in the bottom third.
I guess it’s safe to say the Cowboys haven’t faced a defense as good as the Ravens yet. But Baltimore hasn’t been able to consistently put up points and Dallas is pretty good defensively. The Ravens will succeed in slowing down the Cowboys, but not enough to get a victory. The spread is steep for what should be a close game and Baltimore’s D will keep it that way. I just don’t have faith in Baltimore’s offense to put up more points.
NFL Odds: Cowboys 20, Ravens 17
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