The way the season has unraveled for the Cincinnati Bengals, Marvin Lewis may not have to hear all the talk about his postseason failures. Because with another loss on Monday night, Cincy fell further off the pack in the AFC and is in danger of missing out on the postseason for the first time in six seasons. The Bengals aren’t completely out of the picture in the mediocre AFC North, but wins need to come in a hurry with time running out. They’ll have a chance to get that elusive win when they host the Buffalo Bills in Week 11.
This contest in Week 11 of the regular season will go down Sunday, November 20, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Paul Brown Stadium.
Odds Analysis
The spread and total were still off the board following Cincinnati’s Monday night debacle in New York. The Bengals get a true home game for the first time in a month and they are hopeful that could lead to a turnaround. Two of their three wins came at Paul Brown Stadium, but the Cleveland game doesn’t count. Neither team has been good against the spread so we could expect the Bengals to get the standard field goal for home field advantage.
Injury Report
Eric Wood – The Bills lost a key piece to their potent running game when their Pro Bowl center sustained a broken leg in the team’s Week 9 loss to Seattle. Wood had started 57 straight games and his loss is huge as the Bills look to make a late season push for a playoff spot. Ryan Gory and Patrick Lewis, two inexperienced linemen, are competing to fill the void.
Wallace Gilberry – Welcome back Mr. Gilberry. The former Bengals defensive lineman became a current one when he was signed just last week to give the team depth up front. Quickly thrown into the fray, Gilberry suffered a calf injury that forced him out of Monday night’s game.
Matchup to Watch
It wasn’t that long ago that the Bengals were a solid defensive team. But things have changed this year and Cincy is struggling because of its ineffectiveness at shutting down opponents and getting key stops. Against the league’s worst rushing offense, the Bengals allowed the Giants to scamper for a season-high 122 yards and the G-Men were able to burn off the final three minutes of the clock by running for 38 yards and picking up a crucial first down. Cincinnati never had a chance for a possible game-winning field goal attempt.
The Giants entered Monday night’s game averaging just 68.2 rush yards per game and hadn’t accumulated more than 54 in any of the previous four games. Things could be much worse on Sunday when the Bengals’ 24th ranked run defense tries to stop the Bills attack. And with LeSean McCoy rounding back into form after being slowed by a tender hamstring, it could be a ground war. McCoy was the best back in the league before getting hurt and he looked strong two weeks ago against Seattle. The bye week also helped him get healthier. The Bills are a run first team and with McCoy back carrying a full-time load, expect them to churn out the yards. It’ll be interesting to see how they do without their signal caller Wood on the line, though.
Free ATS Pick
Buffalo played a nice game two weeks ago and could’ve easily escaped Seattle with a victory. The offense clicked scoring the first three times it had the ball to make the Seahawks defense look ordinary. But in the end some goofy officiating and one ill-advised pass proved to be the difference in what was the Bills third straight loss. The off week helped McCoy heal his sore hamstring and the Bills should return to their bread and butter, which is running the football. When Buffalo is successful doing that, Tyrod Taylor becomes even more of threat.
Both teams need to play with a sense of urgency with the playoffs slipping fast, but Cincinnati looked like they wanted nothing to do with the postseason in its loss to the Giants. The Bengals had a nice run but the window is closing fast on them. I like the Bills to expose Cincy’s weaknesses on defense with another solid game plan similar to what Anthony Lynn produced at Seattle. With McCoy and Taylor leading the way, Buffalo extends the Bengals misery.
NFL Odds: Bills 24, Bengals 22
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