You might not realize this about the Buffalo Bills, but they're 5-2 in games which Tyrod Taylor quarterbacks this year.
They've got a mountain to climb in Week 11, knowing that they have to go up against the perfect New England Patriots, a team which they were already beaten by in Week 2 in Orchard Park.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Buffalo Bills +9.5
New England Patriots -9.5
Over/Under 49.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
The more things change, the more they stay the same. When we look back at the end of this season, the most ridiculous betting line you'll reflect upon was in Week 2 when Buffalo was favored at home against the Pats. Of course, New England won 40-32 that day in a game which really wasn't as close as that score line suggested.
The total was only 45 that day, a number which the Pats nearly covered all by themselves.
This time around, the adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers. New England opened up at -9.5 with a total of 49.5, both numbers of which were the biggest of the week when they debuted.
WHEN THE BUFFALO BILLS HAVE THE BALL
Tyrod Taylor isn't a particularly flashy quarterback, but he does manage to move around a little bit and get out of the pocket. The Patriots don't generally like to keep spies, instead wanting to use those linebackers and safeties in coverage, so they could be made just a tad bit uncomfortable by Taylor when he uses his legs.
In fact, we think it's a complete prerequisite for the Bills to get Taylor on the move. He doesn't necessarily have to run, but he has to move the pocket a lot to more or less run guys open. The pressure is just too good from that front seven generally to have Taylor, a man who isn't a pocket passer by nature anyway, standing back there and trying to pick guys out. However, if plays get extended with Taylor's legs, the New England corners just aren't good enough to stick with men like Sammy Watkins for long periods of time.
Live bettors will have their chances for sure in this one, and that tell might be the biggest of the bunch. When Taylor was finally moving around against New England in Week 2, receivers were coming open and big plays were being made. If he's stuck inside the tackle box though, we'll see that New England defense flex its muscle quite a bit.
WHEN THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
Tom Brady threw for 466 yards and three TDs against these Bills in Week 2, but this team looks a lot different from that one. Dion Lewis isn't here any longer, nor is Julian Edelman, who broke his foot last week. Throw in the mix injuries to Marcus Cannon, Tre' Jackson, Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder along the offensive line, and there is a real case for Buffalo's defense to make a stand now after allowing 40 points in September.
However, the task isn't going to be easy. New England's power running game has gotten revved up a bit with LeGarrette Blount these last several weeks, while Danny Amendola is basically a clone of Edelman and should be a fine replacement.
The trick might be stopping Gronk. Rob Gronkowski had seven catches for 113 yards and a TD when these football teams met in Week 2, and live bettors can pretty much bank on six points every time New England is in the red zone because of the big man's presence.
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