It turned out to be a pretty good week for the Detroit Lions. Not only did they enjoy their bye with a chance to heal some bumps and bruises, the Lions moved into a first place tie in the NFC North with Minnesota and Green Bay losing. And coming out of the chute, the Lions can keep the pressure on their division mates with a Week 11 contest with the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars, who continue to employ Gus Bradley despite his 14-43 record.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Sunday, November 20, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Ford Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5
Detroit Lions -6.5
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
The Jaguars have been able to keep most of their games close and the Lions haven’t run away from anybody, so the 6.5-point spread looks pretty steep. Many of the early bettors saw it that way too, with the line wagered down a half point from its opening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line drop another half point before kickoff. The over/under is up there as well. With both teams playing a conservative style, the under has some value.
Injury Report
Marqise Lee – Exited last game with an ankle injury, disrupting what had been the finest season of his three-year career. Lee has progressed nicely and has been the Jags’ most consistent player on offense this season. He’s the team’s second leading receiver and is a threat on special teams averaging 24.4 yards per kickoff return. He’s produced better than Allen Hurns, supplanting him as the No. 2 receiver. If serious, his ankle injury could limit his production in the passing and return game.
Key Stat
The Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league in coughing up the football and their generosity led to yet another loss on Sunday. Two more turnovers, including another Blake Bortles’ interception that was returned for a touchdown, proved to be the Jags downfall in a 24-21 loss to division rival Houston. Jacksonville has turned the ball over 19 times this season, not the most in the NFL, but pretty damn close. The Jets and Chargers have more giveaways, but Jacksonville’s league-worst turnover differential of minus-14 is aided by their inability to create turnovers on defense.
The Jags went a fifth straight game without a takeaway and over that span they are minus-12 in turnover margin. They’ve committed at least one turnover in eight of their nine games and have multiple giveaways in six contests. The only game the Jags didn’t commit a turnover came, not surprisingly, in a win over the Colts. Bortles has thrown 11 interceptions, tied for second-most in the NFL, and has lost three fumbles to account for 14 of the teams 19 turnovers.
Free ATS Pick
You would expect a team after making the same mistakes to hopefully learn from them and move forward. That just hasn’t been the case with the Jaguars. They continue to implode with turnovers and stupid penalties and in all likelihood will cost Bradley his job at some point between now and the start of next training camp. It’s just hard to believe that owner Shad Khan has waited this long and has been rewarded for his loyalty with the same junk. With the playoffs out of the picture it’s time for the Jags to audition for next season and that means seeing if Bortles is the answer. So far he’s proven that he isn’t.
This meeting gives the Lions a great opportunity to stay on top of the NFC North ahead of their Thanksgiving showdown with Minnesota. Detroit entered its bye on a nice little run with four wins in five games and now looks like the favorite in the division with the struggles of the Vikings and Packers. If the Lions are to be considered a favorite in the division, this is a game they must have. With Matthew Stafford elevating his game to a MVP level, he outplays Bortles and the Lions take advantage, but in typical fashion the game is close and Jags cover the line.
NFL Odds: Lions 24, Jaguars 21
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