It’s tough to win football games when you don’t score touchdowns, but the Los Angeles Rams are bucking the trend. For the second time this season the Rams won a game without the benefit of a touchdown, beating the Jets 9-6 on Sunday behind three field goals. While fans in L.A. continue to clamor for No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff to see some playing time, as long as the team can win games with little or no offense, we’ll probably continue to see Case Keenum under center. And that’s the likely scenario in Week 11 against the Miami Dolphins.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Sunday, November 20, 2016, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +1
Los Angeles Rams -1
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
The line opened at Los Angeles -1 and the visitors have seen plenty of early action with 74 percent of the spread wagers. After knocking off the Chargers in San Diego, the Dolphins will spend the week in Southern California before their matchup with the Rams, saving a cross country trip. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some movement on the line prior to kickoff with this game wagered down to a pick em or even moving in favor of Miami. The inability of the Rams to score also gives the under some value on a total that opened at 41.
Injury Report
Branden Albert – Finished Sunday’s game playing with a dislocated wrist and will have the injury examined during the week. The anchor of the Dolphin’s offensive line, Albert is the one player the unit can’t afford to lose if the team wants to continue its run of success. Without much depth up front, if Albert misses the game, the Rams front four could have a big game.
Eugene Sims – The Rams’ defensive end left the last game with a concussion and entered the league’s protocol. He’s not one of the starters on the front four, but he gives the line depth and plays a considerable amount given the length of time the defense spends on the field. He allows the others to stay fresh during the game and his absence would hurt from a conditioning standpoint, leaving the Rams vulnerable against the run.
Key Stat
The inability of the Rams to score is largely due to their poor red zone touchdown percentage. Los Angeles had three drives inside the Jets 20-yard line on Sunday and on each occasion the Rams settled for a field goal. It turned out to be enough in a 9-6 win over the New Yorkers, whose quarterback made his first NFL start. But the club is putting a lot of responsibility on the shoulders of its defense to try and get them into playoff contention.
The Rams moved the ball inside the Jets 1-yard line on their opening drive and couldn’t bust it across on three plays before winding up with a 20-yard field goal. They also had drives get to the Jets 7- and 16-yard line and again failed to reach paydirt. L.A. has failed to score a touchdown three times this season and average a league-low 15.4 points per game. The Rams have just nine touchdowns on 21 red zone trips for a pathetic 42.9 success rate.
Free ATS Pick
The Rams average the fewest points scored in the league and have tallied just 29 points in their last three games, yet they managed to end a four-game slide by dominating the Jets defensively. When a team allows only 36 points total in a three-game stretch, you’d expect the results to be a bit better than a 1-2 record, but that’s pretty much summed up the Rams’ season. The offense is a mess and with no help from Todd Gurley, Keenum has seemingly gotten worse. The defense continues to carry the weight, but the unit is going to wilt behind an offense that can’t consistently move the ball and score points.
The Dolphins have found a good mix on offense with the emergence of Jay Ajayi in the running game and could present a problem for the Rams defense. It’s hard to envision the Fins doing a lot of damage against a stout defense, but they should do enough to get the victory while the heat on Jeff Fisher to get Goff in the game intensifies.
NFL Odds: Dolphins 16, Rams 12
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