Tom Brady will enjoy a homecoming and he and the New England Patriots will be welcomed by one of the worst defenses in the NFL. A Bay Area native, Brady will play on the San Francisco 49ers home turf for the first time in his career when the teams tangle in Week 11. The Niners would like nothing better than to spoil the festivities against the best team in the AFC, which would also end an eight-game losing skid.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 11 game is set for Sunday, November 20, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -14
San Francisco 49ers +14
Over/Under 51
Odds Analysis
This will be the fourth game the 49ers have been double-digit dogs and they covered the spread for the first time last week in Arizona. That cover win also broke a string of seven straight ATS losses. So, the Niners haven’t been a very good bet. They did show some fight last week and played the closest game during their current losing streak, but that isn’t enough to sway the betting public. The line has already been wagered a point and a half to New England -14.5 with the visitors getting over 70 percent of the early action.
Injury Report
Aaron Lynch – After getting most of the major injuries out of the way earlier in the year, the Niners are relatively healthy with the roster they have. The only problem is that it’s not a very good roster. Lynch stepped in at linebacker when NaVorro Bowman and Ray-Ray Armstrong were lost earlier and the group suffered even more when he exited with an ankle injury.
Matchup to Watch
When the 49ers get the football on Sunday they better hold onto it because they might not get it back. The Patriots are the second-best team in the NFL at extending drives by converting 48.3 percent of their third-down chances, and they’ve been even better with Brady back in his usual role. Since Brady returned from his suspension in Week 5, New England has converted a whopping 56.5 percent of its third-downs, extending drives and wearing down the opposing defense.
And that’s not good news for the 49ers, who have struggled defensively by being on the field for an extended amount of time. Part of that can be attributed to an offense that has failed to move the sticks consistently, but the defense is partly to blame as well. San Francisco is allowing opponents to convert 47 percent of time on third-down and ranks 30th in that category. The Niners are going to have a hard enough time trying to stop the Patriots and it will only get worse if they can’t get off the field.
Free ATS Pick
The sign of a good team is that it overcomes its mistakes, makes adjustments and improves on what was learned. The sign of a bad team is that when one weakness is corrected, another burns you. That pretty much sums up the 49ers. They played well against the run in Arizona, something they hadn’t done all season, and forced four Cardinals turnovers. But they committed nine costly penalties and failed to capitalize on those takeaways. It all added up to yet another loss for the floundering franchise which now hosts the dreaded Patriots.
We keep hearing about how Colin Kaepernick is starting to play like the Kap of a few years ago. I have yet to see it. And it’s hard to say he had a good game against the Cardinals. I guess if the Niners are close at the end of the game that’s a moral victory. Kaepernick didn’t throw a pick or turn the ball over, so that’s progress. But he was just 17 of 30 for 210 yards passing. He was the team’s leading rusher with 55 yards, but the Niners managed only 281 yards of offense and failed to cash in a few chances after forcing turnovers. It’s hard to imagine the Niners being competitive in this game, especially considering how worn out the defense is going to be in the second half. The spread is large but the Patriots are looking for redemption after losing to Seattle and they take out their frustrations on the hapless Niners.
NFL Odds: Patriots 34, 49ers 17
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