The way the Kansas City Chiefs have pulled out a few improbable victories this season, they might be considered a team of destiny. Even after their comeback win over Carolina on Sunday, the Chiefs are still overlooked in their own division with the defending champion Broncos and the upstart Raiders, but K.C. could be the best of the bunch. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers do have a defense and it showed up in a win over the Bears. They’ll try to slow the Chiefs when the teams meet in Week 11.
Watch this regular season Week 11 matchup live on Sunday, November 20, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The opening spread is the highest for the Chiefs this season and they haven’t been that good when playing as the heavy favorite. Three times the Chiefs have been favored by at least 6.5-points and they failed to cover every time. Kansas City likes to keep them close and low scoring and this one likely falls in the same category. The Chiefs have cashed the under in five straight games and their opportunistic defense will do its part to keep the Bucs out of the end zone.
Injury Report
Kevin Pamphile – Tampa Bay’s offensive line is thin to begin with and could be down two starters with Pamphile suffering from a concussion and center Joe Hawley dealing with a knee injury. The Bucs’ offense played well in a win over the Bears, but will have a more difficult time against the aggressive Chiefs defenders.
Phillip Gaines – The Chiefs could be without cornerback Gaines after he sustained a neck injury against the Panthers. Gaines had been working his way back to a more prominent role in the secondary following a knee injury earlier in the season and is part of a defense that ranks 13th against the pass. Kansas City will be thin at corner without him leaving Jameis Winston with some options in the passing game.
Look ahead Situation
The Chiefs are in a tight battle for the AFC West title and play four of their final six games within the division. Before their Week 12 showdown with the Broncos in Denver to start that division-laden run, the Chiefs must first tangle with the Buccaneers in what could be a trap game for Kansas City against the 4-5 Bucs. The Chiefs have the division lead by virtue of their earlier win over the Raiders and along with the Broncos, all three teams have seven wins, so the division could be decided in head-to-head competition over the final month and a half of the year.
With two games against the Broncos and a rematch with the Raiders at Arrowhead down the line, the Chiefs must also contend with non-division foes Atlanta and Tennessee. With the exception of the Chargers, who the Chiefs play in the final regular season game, every team is at or above .500 with all in playoff contention. Playing the Bucs at home is a favorable scenario for the Chiefs, but looking beyond them could put K.C. in a difficult spot down the road.
Free ATS Pick
Jay Cutler was up to his old tricks and the Bucs benefitted with a confidence-building win over Chicago last week. Tampa Bay’s beleaguered defense did a number on the lowest scoring team in the league, using the extra time between games to work on areas that caused the unit to surrender nearly 1,100 yards of offense the previous two weeks. Playing the Bears helped, but Tampa Bay forced four turnovers and sacked Cutler four times in an overwhelming victory. It was the kind of effort this group needed, but not something we should get used to.
One thing the Chiefs don’t do is give games away. One of the more disciplined teams in the league, Kansas City has a NFL-high 20 takeaways and boasts the best turnover margin at plus-13. This allows them to win games in comeback style and usually keeps the contests fairly low-scoring. The Chiefs have played below the total in five straight games and the under is 7-2 for the year. Kansas City isn’t going to light up the scoreboard, but they don’t allow opponents to do it either. This could be another close game with the defenses doing their part and the spread is too high for the Chiefs to cover. The under also has plenty of value.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 22, Buccaneers 18
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