Winning football games has been difficult for the Tennessee Titans, but the club has made a turnaround this season. The Titans matched their win total from the previous two seasons combined by thrashing the Packers on Sunday to move to 5-5. The AFC South is wide open and if the Titans run their offense like they did last week, the division could be turned upside down. A big step toward the top of the division could take place with a Week 11 win over the Indianapolis Colts on the road.
This contest in Week 11 of the regular season will go down Sunday, November 20, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee Titans +3
Indianapolis Colts -3
Over/Under 52.5
Odds Analysis
When these teams first met back in Week 7, the Titans were 4-point home chalk and fell by eight points. The Colts get the standard field for home field advantage but still haven’t swayed many bettors with over 70 percent of the early wagers on the visitors. Tennessee hasn’t won in Indianapolis in eight tries and is just 1-7 ATS during that stretch. After the 60-point outburst in the first game, the total opened at 53.5 but was quickly wagered down a point. The teams have combined to score at least 54 points in each of the last three games.
Injury Report
Henry Anderson – It’s been a lost season for the Colts defensive lineman, who remains out due to a knee injury. Anderson was expected to be a force along the line and was returning to form before getting hurt. Anderson’s absence from the lineup has been a major reason why the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Jake Mewhort – The Colts are hopeful the bye week will help with some of the injury concerns, but it’s likely their starting tackle will miss more time with a triceps injury. Mewhort’s absence, along with that of guard Joe Reitz, has left the offensive line a mess, leading to a league high 33 sacks allowed.
Key Stat
Tennessee’s offense has put up unmatched numbers the past few weeks, scoring at least 26 points in each of the past six outings, topping the 30-point mark four times, and capping off that impressive run with a 47-point outburst in a win over the Packers on Sunday. There are several contributing factors to the surge, but look no further than Marcus Mariota.
Since he entered the league last season, Mariota has thrown 31 red zone touchdown passes without an interception and the Titans are the most prolific at converting inside the opponent’s 20-yard line this season. Tennessee scored three times on four red zone trips against the Packers and has scored six points on 17 of 20 red zone trips over the previous six games. For the year, the Titans are converting 76.5 percent of the time inside the opponents 20.
Free ATS Pick
There could be a changing of the guard in the AFC South and a Titans win over the Colts would certainly signify that. For many years the division has been the Colts and part of their success came at the expense of the Titans. The Colts have won 10 straight and 15 of the past 16 meetings, including a Week 7 win in Nashville when they were a 4-point underdog. It’s not like the Colts are the more talented team, which they definitely are not, but they have the psychological edge by constantly beating Tennessee.
If the Titans are to end the skid, they need to continue with their offensive surge. And that’s a strong possibility against an Indy defense that ranks as one of the worst in the NFL. Expect a good dose of DeMarco Murray, and Mariota will take his shots. A costly turnover cost the Titans in the first meeting and avoiding the giveaways are key against Andrew Luck and the Colts offense. The teams combined for 60 points in the first meeting and they are out there, giving the over some value. Expect the Titans to remain hot and end their slide against the Colts with a straight up win.
NFL Odds: Titans 30, Colts 26
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