With another loss the Jacksonville Jaguars were denied the chance of finishing the year with a winning record, extending their streak of such seasons to nine straight. The Jags will be hard pressed to match last season’s win total of five, but they’ll give it a shot in Week 12 against the Buffalo Bills. However, it’s likely just a matter of time before Gus Bradley becomes their former coach after compiling just a 14-43 record in his tenure.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, November 27, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at New Era Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +7
Buffalo Bills -7
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
With the exception of two blowout losses, the Jaguars have been competitive and the opening line of Bills -7 seems high. Buffalo will have to deal with some injury concerns on the offensive side of the ball and that likely makes the game even closer. I expect the line to move before kickoff so taking the 7-points now is a gift. Also, the same concerns play into the over/under wagers. This game has the under written all over it.
Injury Report
Patrick Omameh – The loss of Jacksonville’s starting left guard could be significant with a matchup against the sack-happy Bills up next. Omameh has been a steady influence on the line that has done a nice job keeping the pressure off Bortles. The Jags have surrendered 21 sacks this season. But the Bills like to bring the heat and have a NFL-high 31 sacks. Borles could be under siege without Omameh there to help with protection.
Robert Woods – Woods stepped into the starring role when Sammy Watkins went down earlier in the season and produced some good numbers. Now the Bills are likely without their leading receiver after he sustained a knee injury in the last game. Buffalo doesn’t throw the ball that much, but the attack will suffer in Woods’ absence.
Key Stat
The Jaguars actually produced two takeaways against the Lions on Sunday, breaking a stretch of five games where they failed to create a turnover. But the Jags still lost the turnover battle and saw their NFL-worst turnover margin increase to minus-15. Blake Bortles threw two more interceptions and Chris Ivory lost a fumble as the Jags turned the ball over multiple times for the third straight game and for the seventh time in 10 games this season.
Bortles threw his 10th career pick-six and has tossed at least one interception in eight of 10 games. He also has a league-high tying 13 interceptions for the year. The Jaguars have been in a majority of their games this season, but they continue to find ways to lose and the turnovers have played a big role in that. They’ve played just one turnover-free game and it was a victory over the Colts. During their current five-game losing streak the Jags are minus-11 in turnover differential.
Free ATS Pick
It’s become almost comical how the Jaguars continue to make the same stupid mistakes that cost them ball games. Sunday’s game played out a little differently, but in the end the result was the same. The Jags had a fourth quarter lead and they finally produced a turnover, but costly errors were once again their downfall. It’s become so common that we can’t expect the results to change.
The Bills are simply delaying the inevitable. This is not a team that’s playoff worthy and following the loss of their two biggest offensive weapons, the Bills aren’t going to run the table to get the necessary number of victories to end their playoff drought. Woods is likely out for some time with his knee injury and LeSean McCoy is dealing with a hand injury. Word from Buffalo is that McCoy will play on Sunday, but his effectiveness holding onto the football could be compromised with a dislocated thumb. The Jags have been competitive in most of their games and the Bills aren’t going to blow them away, so taking the seven points looks like a smart play. Also, with several offensive players on each side unlikely to play, the teams will have a hard time reaching the over.
NFL Odds: Bills 22, Jaguars 20
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