There are few traditions in all of sports like the Detroit Lions kicking off all of the festivities of a great day of NFL football at home on Thanksgiving Day.
This year is no exception, though the game could prove to be an awfully interesting one against the Philadelphia Eagles.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Philadelphia Eagles PK
Detroit Lions PK
Over/Under 47
ODDS ANALYSIS
Just a couple weeks ago, Philadelphia was considered a team which had figured a little something out, while the Lions were a complete train wreck. The Eagles would've easily been favored by at least a field goal, if not closer to a touchdown.
However, since that point, Chip Kelly's squad has looked horrible and has lost Sam Bradford to injury, while the Lions have tripled their win total they had from when they entered their bye week.
Now, this Turkey Day tussle features a point spread of just a pick 'em along with a total of 45.5. The total is already down 1.5 points from the opening figure of 47.
WHEN THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
Last season, Mark Sanchez was forced into action for the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, and he played lights out. That game against the Cowboys was one of the many reasons Philly fans largely believed they were in better shape with Sanchez than Bradford anyway.
Alas, in his game and change on the field, Sanchez has gone just 40-for-64 for 417 yards with two TDs and four picks, numbers which just aren't good enough.
Sanchez got into some real problems last week against the Bucs, and if the Eagles end up falling behind again in this one, it's entirely plausible that things could get a lot worse as well.
The Lions don't have a tremendous defense, and Thanksgiving Day hasn't historically treated this unit well, but these last two weeks, the pass rush has looked a lot better with seven sacks and several pressures, and that's making all the difference in the world.
For live bettors, it's all about pressure on Sanchez. The bigger the moment, the more likely he is to flop, especially if Jim Caldwell's defense is getting home against a poor offensive line.
WHEN THE DETROIT LIONS HAVE THE BALL
Matt Stafford has had some great games and some awful games on Thanksgiving in his career, while Calvin Johnson has generally been massive. It's easy to make the mistake of thinking that this offense has been great with these last two wins, but live bettors need to keep their eyes on some raw facts.
The biggest problem with Detroit is the fact that it has scored more than 20 points exactly once since Week 1, and that came against an awful Bears defense. The football team still doesn't have a single man with even 300 rushing yards (Seattle has three, for good measure), and success on the ground isn't happening in this one for a team averaging just 71.1 yards per game on the ground.
So yes, live bettors will have to watch some moments where Golden Tate and Megatron make some big plays, but for the most part, Stafford, who has just two games with a 90+ quarterback rating this year, is going to be producing short drives with no success than anything else. The under should most certainly be in play more often than not when the Lions have possession.
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