It’s rare that a game featuring a pair of 5-5 teams would have such an impact as the Thanksgiving night Week 12 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts. Pittsburgh ended its four-game slide and got back on top of the AFC North by keeping the Browns winless while the Colts still have visions of an AFC South crown after winning two straight and three of their past four games. Both divisions are up still for grabs and one of these teams will keep moving in the right direction with a victory.
This contest in Week 12 of the regular season will go down Thursday, November 24, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
Indianapolis Colts +2.5
Over/Under 53
Odds Analysis
Despite their recent struggles, the Steelers still have support of the betting public with nearly 70 percent of the early spread wagers backing the visitors. The action forced the line to move a half point from its opening. Pittsburgh showed a lot of cracks during its losing streak and a win over the Browns isn’t going to cure everything. The total opened as the highest on the board for Week 12 and Pittsburgh’s conservative approach is likely going to keep the score below that number.
Injury Report
Neither team has reported any major injury concerns following their victories last week.
Matchup to Watch
The Steelers won’t face a team as bad as the Browns the rest of the season, but for one day they did what they wanted on the defensive front and it could change their season. The Browns are a mess, but so was Pittsburgh entering Sunday’s game. The Steelers didn’t allow the Browns to do much on offense and a pass rush that had produced a league-low 13 sacks entering the game was able to get after Cleveland’s quarterbacks and register eight sacks. It was Pittsburgh’s most sacks in a game in nearly 11 years.
Six different players recorded a sack and one of the plays resulted in a touchdown when Ryan Shazier’s strip sack was recovered in the end zone for a touchdown. The Steelers will need to apply the pressure to Andrew Luck to slow Indy’s passing game and the Colts haven’t been the best at protecting their quarterback. Luck was sacked twice by the Titans and the Colts have surrendered 35 sacks on the year, the second-most in the NFL. The key for Pittsburgh is to bring Luck down. Luck was deadly under pressure against the Titans as he maneuvered around the pocket and avoided several sack opportunities.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to say if the Steelers have gotten out of their rut. They ended their four-game losing streak and dominated the Browns in a 24-9 victory on Sunday, yet the performance wasn’t overwhelming against a team that has yet to win a game. It wasn’t the outcome that instilled a load of confidence in Pittsburgh fans, but it was a win and it moved the Steelers back to the top of the heap in the AFC North. Pittsburgh changed things up from recent weeks, using a more conservative approach and putting the ball in the hands of Le’Veon Bell. The strategy paid off with Bell running for 146 yards and adding another 55 on eight receptions.
Without a threat opposite Antonio Brown in the passing game, we’re likely to see a repeat performance on Thursday night. Bell was a beast and made the Browns pay, but the Steelers struggled in the red zone, settling for three Chris Boswell field goals, and couldn’t put the pesky Browns away until the defense scored a touchdown late. The Colts used another sterling performance from Luck to get an early lead and hold off the Titans in a critical division game. The Colts have some weapons back on offense and the line is in better shape than that of Cleveland. If the Steelers can’t get to Luck he’ll pick them apart, and that’s the difference in a big Colts victory. But don’t look for the fireworks as the teams will play below the total.
NFL Odds: Colts 26, Steelers 22
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