The Houston Texans once again proved they aren’t ready to compete with the big boys. And in the process they allowed competition in the AFC South a chance to move closer to the top spot. The Texans had that signature win they’ve been looking for within their reach until they couldn’t stretch far enough on a fourth down play. Houston’s four losses this season have come against teams with a combined .725 winning percentage. None of their remaining opponents currently have a winning record and that includes Week 12 foe San Diego Chargers.
Watch this regular season Week 12 matchup live on Sunday, November 27, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium.
Odds Analysis
With the Texans playing late Monday night, the spread and total have yet to hit the board. These teams are evenly matched and the spread will likely open with the Texans getting the standard field goal for home field advantage. But the visitors could have an edge following their bye while the Texans have a short week to get ready.
Injury Report
Jatavis Brown – The Chargers rookie linebacker has been a force since taking over the starting job following the season-ending injury to Manti Te’o. But Brown missed the last game with a knee injury and is doubtful to play in Houston. His athleticism allows him to defend tight ends and backs leaving safeties to help in deeper routes. Houston utilizes the tight end extensively in the passing game and this could present a problem for the Bolts.
Tyler Ervin – Houston’s main return man suffered a rib injury against the Raiders and his availability for Sunday’s game is in question. Ervin was removed from the game after fumbling a kickoff, but the injury occurred on an earlier punt. The rookie from San Jose State is averaging 18.8 yards per kickoff return and 10.6 on punt returns. Braxton Miller and Akeem Hunt handled return duties but they have little experience doing so this season.
Letdown Spot
The Chargers have had their share of tough breaks this season, be it from the season-ending injuries, to their imaginative ways to lose games, to their failed stadium vote. But they may have finally caught a good break in the Week 12 schedule. How it works out depends on whether or not the Bolts take advantage of it.
San Diego is coming off its bye and Mike McCoy gave his team the entire week off with hopes of reenergizing and recuperating. The plan may have worked as several players who missed time recently returned to the practice field. That’s only part of the potentially good break. The other is that they take on a Texans team fresh off a heartbreaking Monday Night Football encounter with the Raiders in Mexico City. The off week allowed McCoy and his staff to watch the MNF game and prepare for the upcoming contest while Houston was giving a game away. Now it’s only a good break if the Chargers can take advantage of the scheduling quirk, but after what they’ve been through they’ll take it anyway.
Free ATS Pick
The Chargers came up with yet another way to lose a game and entered their bye on a sour note following a deflating loss the Dolphins. A pick-six from Philip Rivers with less than two minutes left in a tie game was another punch to the gut and probably ended any realistic chance the Bolts had of reaching the playoffs. But what this team has accomplished is quite remarkable given the number of key players felled by season-enders and the different ways of losing they’ve come up with. McCoy gave his team the week off during the bye to recover and San Diego will be refreshed coming out of the break. And instead of losing players, the Chargers are expected to get a few key defenders back.
The Texans have built a lead in the AFC South with the help of wins over each of the three clubs. That’s not saying much since the division could very well be the weakest in the league. But somebody has to win it and the Texans are the team currently leading the way. San Diego has the quarterback advantage in this one and with the Chargers likely getting defenders Denzell Perryman and Jahleel Addae back, as well as receiver Travis Benjamin, I like their chances against a deflated Texans group.
NFL Odds: Chargers 28, Texans 24
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