The Miami Dolphins are the hottest team in the NFL. And after mounting a fourth quarter comeback on Sunday to win their fifth straight game, maybe we can start calling them a good team as well. The run of success has the Fins right in the thick of the AFC playoff picture and adding to the misery of the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12 will keep the Dolphins on their upward swing as they look to end their seven year playoff drought.
This matchup in Week 12 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, November 27, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
San Francisco 49ers +7
Miami Dolphins -7
Over/Under 45.5
Odds Analysis
Don’t be surprised to see this line move before kickoff. The Dolphins opening as a 7-point favorite is almost a gift to their backers. Miami is 5-0 ATS during its win streak, getting the run started with three home wins. The Niners on the other hand are one of the worst bets in the NFL this season. They lost for the third time this season as a double-digit dog and are just 2-8 ATS.
Injury Report
Eric Reid – San Francisco’s starting safety and leader in the secondary sustained an arm injury late in the Patriots game and the reports are a torn bicep. That would mean the end of the season for Reid and another blow to the worst defense in the NFL.
Laremy Tunsil – Injured his shoulder and exited the Rams game, leaving the left side of Miami’s offensive line on the shelf. The Dolphins played without Branden Albert, who had surgery on his wrist, with Tunsil moving to his spot. With both possibly out, the Dolphins could be susceptible to the Niners pass rush from that side of the ball.
Matchup to Watch
San Francisco’s porous run defense was back on the field allowing another opponent to rack up triple digits in rushing yards. One week after ending a streak in which they allowed a 100-yard rusher in seven consecutive games, the 49ers surrendered 124 yards on the ground to New England’s LeGarrette Blount and the Pats managed 171 yards on 30 rush attempts. San Francisco’s inability to stop, or even slow opponents from churning out the rush yards, takes its toll and the Niners don’t seem to have any answers.
Now they’ll face one of the AFC’s top running backs in Miami’s Jay Ajayi. The train has slowed a bit, but Ajayi’s emergence in the Fins’ backfield has coincided with a stretch of five straight wins. Ajayi had back-to-back 200-yard rush games to start the win streak and has amassed 685 of his 802 yards during the past five games while averaging 137 per game and better than six yards per carry. He’ll get a chance to pad those numbers against the worst run defense in the league.
Free ATS Pick
The Dolphins are making a case for inclusion in the AFC playoff picture following their five-game winning streak, but I’m still not convinced they are one of the top teams in the conference. The recent stretch has included some poor teams, injured opponents and a few lucky breaks. But the Dolphins won the games, so you have to give them credit for that. And they’ve been able to do it in a variety of ways. With an offense that has found some balance, Ryan Tannehill has become the signal-caller the team expected him to be. He’s led some dramatic fourth quarter comeback wins and the Dolphins have taken advantage of every second on the game clock.
One thing we do know is that the 49ers are terrible. If the Dolphins are to make a postseason run, this is a team they need to put away. And right now the Niners are a damaged group riding a team record nine-game losing streak. Don’t expect the Dolphins to panic if they are losing at halftime. S.F. has been at its worst in the second half of games while the Fins have thrived down the stretch during its winning streak. The Niners are the worst against the spread and seven points is a gift. Take the Fins minus the points to cash your bet.
NFL Odds: Dolphins 31, 49ers 20
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