The New England Patriots seem to bring out the best in Joe Flacco, and the Baltimore Ravens will need that greatness to surface if they are to get an upset road win and keep pace in the AFC North. The division will likely have just one representative in the postseason and that’ll be the winner. The Ravens and Steelers have a showdown in two weeks, but there are games to be played in the meantime, and Baltimore has a huge one in Week 14.
This contest in Week 14 of the regular season will go down Monday, December 12, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baltimore Ravens +7
New England Patriots -7
Over/Under 45
Odds Analysis
The line opened at Patriots -8 and was wagered down a full point with early money backing the visitors. Given New England’s injury concerns I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line dip more before kickoff. But it’s hard to go against Tom Brady and the Patriots in a December home game so the bets will likely remain even. The Pats will play it safe without two of their top offensive weapons and I don’t see enough points being scored to reach the total.
Injury Report
Danny Amendola – On the heels of losing stud tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots sustained another blow to their passing attack when Amendola left last game with an ankle injury. He will not play this week leaving the Patriots looking for help in that area.
Eric Rowe – The Pats also lost defensive back Rowe to a hamstring injury, weakening the secondary. Rowe has played well enough to move into a starting role, supplanting Logan Ryan opposite Malcolm Butler. Rowe has the size and quickness to handle the bigger receivers in the league and his absence could open up some throwing lanes for Flacco.
Matchup to Watch
Following a dominating effort in a 38-6 win over the Dolphins last weekend, the Ravens’ defense has moved back into the No. 1 overall position in the team rankings. It’s a spot the group has become quite familiar with this season, but it took a slide following a loss to the Cowboys in Week 11 when the Ravens surrendered 417 yards. Order was restored in a Week 12 win over Cincinnati and things were back to normal last week. The Ravens allowed just 277 yards to what had been a prolific Dolphins offense, recorded a pair of sacks, held the Fins to just four third down conversions in 13 attempts and produced three takeaways.
It was the kind of effort the Ravens will need to upset the Patriots on the road and one the team has come to expect. Baltimore is ranked first in total defense, giving up only 296.1 yards per game, and run defense with an average of 73.8 per game. The pass defense has been slightly less stingy, but the Ravens will be aided by the injuries to Gronk and Amendola, which could limit big plays. The Pats will resort to their patented short passing attack, which will help the teams reach the under on the total.
Free ATS Pick
Playing the Patriots in Foxboro in December is always a daunting task, but don’t expect the Ravens to be frightened by the challenge. Baltimore is one team that has gone toe-to-toe with New England in the Bill Belichick era and the Ravens have had their share of success. But following their dismantling of the Dolphins in what was Baltimore’s most complete game of the year, the Ravens could be peaking at the right time.
Brady isn’t the winningest quarterback for nothing. He thrives in games like this. Actually, he thrives in any game. There could be some underlying factors at play here as well. The Pats feel it was the Ravens who shared notes with Indianapolis during the 2014 season playoffs leading to the whole Deflategate saga that eventually got Brady suspended. The Pats won’t be at full strength with Gronk and Amendola out of the lineup and that should be a boost for the Ravens, who need this game to keep pace with the Steelers in the North. It’s tough to go against the Pats, but given the past history and what’s at stake, I think the Ravens will respond with a critical straight up victory.
NFL Odds: Ravens 23, Patriots 21
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