The Tennessee Titans have already surpassed their win total from the previous two seasons combined and now they find themselves tied for the top spot in the AFC South. It’s been quite the renaissance for Tennessee, which has the benefit of playing in the worst division in the NFL. The Titans can quiet those nay-sayers who claim they don’t deserve to be a playoff team by collecting a victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos when the clubs collide in a Week 14 contest.
Watch this regular season Week 14 matchup live on Sunday, December 11, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium.
Odds Analysis
The spread and total have yet to surface as oddsmakers await word on Denver’s starting quarterback. The over/under will definitely be interesting to keep an eye on. In two Paxton Lynch starts, including last week’s game at Jacksonville, the Broncos have played below the final total. The over is 6-4 in games started by Trevor Siemian. With Siemian pegged as the starter, the Broncos will likely be a small favorite. Otherwise the game could be a pick em.
Injury Report
Trevor Siemian – We wouldn’t have thought missing Siemian would be a big deal for the Broncos, but with him sidelined with a bad foot on Sunday, the offense struggled behind Lynch. Thanks to some timely turnovers by the Jags, Denver was able to pull off the victory in Jacksonville despite Lynch throwing for only 104 yards.
Jason McCourty – Pass defense has been a concern for the Titans, and particularly the play of the cornerbacks. The Titans released Parrish Cox during the off week and McCourty is dealing with a knee injury sustained in the last game. The secondary will look much different on Sunday with several rookies vying for playing time.
Key Stat
When the offense sags, leave it to the Broncos defense to come up with the big plays. That’s exactly what happened last week to keep Denver in the thick of the AFC playoff picture and still in contention for the AFC West crown. The Broncos declared Simien inactive for their showdown with Jacksonville, handing the starting assignment to Lynch for just the second time. While Lynch may be the quarterback of the future, he proved he’s not the quarterback of the present. With the offense struggling behind Lynch, the defense knew it would have to make big plays, and the group responded.
It’s there, the ability to make game-altering plays, but the Broncos needed it most on Sunday. With an offensive game plan geared to not let Lynch screw it up, the D came up with the big plays. The Broncos forced three turnovers, one of which led directly to a score when Reggie Roby returned an interception for a touchdown, and another to thwart a Jags drive late in the fourth quarter. Denver’s 23 takeaways are the third-most in the NFL and their plus-7 turnover differential is the fourth-best.
Free ATS Pick
The Broncos came through in a much-needed win scenario last weekend, knocking off the Jags with a defensive effort reminiscent of the 2015 title run. Denver needed every bit of it to stay in the playoff race. It wasn’t the prettiest performance by Lynch and the numbers were ugly, but the rookie didn’t turn the ball over and he allowed the defense to do its job. The Titans are a much better squad than the Jags and Denver will need to open things up offensively regardless of who starts. Siemian could be back under center and that should help the offense, but like it’s been all season, the Broncos are about defense.
Tennessee will lean on DeMarco Murray and the third-ranked running game to try and control the clock and wear down Denver’s defense. The strategy has been successful with Murray amassing 1,043 rushing yards and the team averaging better than 141 per game on the ground. The ability to run the football will also keep Marcus Mariota out of the cross-hairs of the sack-happy Denver defense. Tennessee will do its best to make the run work and that should keep the score down with few big plays from either side coming in the passing game. While the Titans are making a move, they aren’t there yet, and the Broncos will escape with a victory in a defensive struggle.
NFL Odds: Broncos 20, Titans 14
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