The Houston Texans know that the AFC South title is still there for the taking. Nine wins is the dead minimum that will get the job done in all likelihood, and that means this game against the New England Patriots is one which really has to be won to give them a realistic chance of claiming their third playoff berth in franchise history.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -3
Houston Texans +3
Over/Under 44.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
Just a few weeks back, this spread probably would've been New England at -10 and a total of 52. However, the struggling Pats offense has seemingly fallen apart under the weight of a ton of injuries, and the Texans have come on strong buoyed by a four-game winning streak which ended last week in Buffalo.
Now, the total has dipped to 44.5 and could fall before the kickoff of this one on Sunday Night Football. The Pats are definitely public at -3. Over 70 percent of the bets in this game have come in on New England, yet this line hasn't moved a lick.
WHEN THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
Tom Brady can do a lot of great things, but he isn't a magician. He's still an aging veteran with Father Time working against him, and when he has a group of castoffs pieced together with spit and glue around him, the results aren't going to be pretty.
Oh sure, that New England offense was virtually flawless in the last six minutes against Philadelphia last week, clawing out of a 35-14 hole to make it 35-28, and anyone in the world who says they really thought the Eagles were going to hold the Patriots out of the end zone in the final 60 seconds of that game is a liar.
But it was in that 60 seconds that we saw why the Patriots are mortal. They don't have Rob Gronkowski and probably won't again this week. They don't have Julian Edelman and won't for the rest of the season. Brandon LaFell didn't have a training camp this year and won't get those reps back. Danny Amendola is still visibly aching, if not fighting through a legitimate injury.
And now, a beaten up offensive line and lousy wide receivers have to deal with J.J. Watt, the biggest freak of nature on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL. Watt has put up numbers which are every bit as good as last year when many thought he'd have a gripe to win the MVP award.
Magic isn't likely to happen overnight. It's easy to live bet on the Patriots. But reality suggests that you probably shouldn't more often than not.
WHEN THE HOUSTON TEXANS HAVE THE BALL
In fact, if New England is going to win this game, it's going to have to do so on the defensive side of the ball. Quietly, Brian Hoyer has turned into a Top 10 fantasy football quarterback, and as an aside, he might even be a better option than Brady this week.
DeAndre Hopkins showed last week that he can take over a game all by himself if Bill O'Brien would just let Hoyer throw him the ball more often than not.
No, the Texans aren't lighting the world on fire with their offense, and they're going to punt more often than not, particularly on the first drives of games. Houston has only scored once on its opening possession all year long.
However, if there's a man who should be able to scheme for the New England defense, it's the man who coordinated against that defense for years in practices. O'Brien knows that New England way. That's where he came from originally before coming to Houston by way of Penn State. The question in live betting is whether he can exploit it or not.
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Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The Week 14 matchup between the New England Patriots and Houston Texans will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015, at 8:30 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. The game will be televised on NBC.
