It’s been a fruitful run for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who caught division-leading Atlanta at the top of the NFC South standings by winning four straight games. Nobody saw this coming after three ugly losses at the start of the year had the Bucs floundering at 1-3. But, it’s not how you start it’s how you finish, and the Bucs are hoping to finish off the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 in the first of two meetings between the clubs in the final four weeks.
This contest in Week 14 of the regular season will go down Sunday, December 11, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Over/Under 51
Odds Analysis
The Buccaneers are playing games that actually mean something this late in a season for the first time since 2010 when they missed the postseason due to a tie-breaker. That makes us wonder if the pressure will be too much for them to handle. They’ve played well getting back into the race and have covered in each of their last four games. The public is siding with the Bucs with 70 percent of the spread wagers favoring the home team as a 2.5-point favorite.
Injury Report
Josh Hill – Reports are saying the Saints tight end is done for the year with a leg injury. It could be a serious blow since the team currently has just two healthy players – Coby Fleener and John Phillips – at the position. Hill has 15 catches and had been starting due to his ability as a blocker to help in the run game.
Cecil Shorts – The Bucs lost Shorts to a severe knee injury against San Diego, thinning out the receiving corps even more. Shorts had filled in nicely for Vincent Jackson after he was put on injured reserve with knee injury a few weeks ago. There isn’t much experience and very little production behind Shorts.
Matchup to Watch
One stat that makes the Saints so prolific on offense is their ability to convert in the red zone. It doesn’t always work out and there are games that bring the percentage down, as was the case for the Saints against Detroit. New Orleans scored just one touchdown on three trips inside the Lions’ 20-yard line last Sunday, the lowest percentage of the year for the Saints. And that led directly to their season-low tying point total in a 28-13 loss, matching their Week 2 output when they had just one red zone drive against the Giants.
But that was the exception this season. The Saints have the NFL’s fourth-best red zone touchdown percentage at 68.4 and have converted at least 60 percent of their chances nine times in 12 games. If given the opportunity, the Saints will convert a high percentage of their chances, that’s why they are the second-highest scoring team in the league. Tampa Bay’s red zone defense has been suspect all season, ranking 26th in the league surrendering touchdowns on 62.9 percent of opponent red zone drives.
Free ATS Pick
As well as the Bucs have played recently, I’m still not convinced they’re a playoff-caliber team this year. They’ve done some nice things and the defense has picked up after a couple of blowout losses had them searching for answers. They apparently found them and are playing meaningful games in December for the first time in a while. The pressure of such games will be their downfall now that they’ve caught the Falcons at the top.
We usually don’t see Drew Brees and the Saints offense have consecutive poor games, and going against a Bucs unit that is playing over its head will bring Tampa Bay back to reality. Nobody is mentioning New Orleans in the division discussion, but the Saints will have plenty to say about who wins the NFC South. Heck, with two games against the Bucs and a season-ender with the Falcons, it could be the Saints that sneak in there. Unlikely, but while there’s still a chance you know Sean Payton will pull out all the stops to get a win.
NFL Odds: Saints 26, Buccaneers 22
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