The AFC West might be the strongest division in the NFL and the top two teams will square off with first place on the line in a Week 14 Thursday night matchup. The Oakland Raiders lead the division by a game and haven’t lost since dropping a 26-10 decision to the Kansas City Chiefs at home nearly two months ago. The Raiders have already guaranteed themselves a winning record for the first time since 2002, but they’ve been unable to shake the Chiefs, who can take the division lead with a victory.
This matchup in Week 14 of the regular season will take place on Thursday, December 8, 2016, at 8:25 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oakland Raiders +3
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
The Chiefs were staked three points for home field advantage and the spread appears to be spot on with the early wagers spread fairly evenly. Kansas City has won four straight in the series, including a 26-10 victory when the teams met earlier this season in the Bay Area. Oakland is one of the best bets in the NFL with an 8-4 ATS record and is unbeaten on the road at 5-0 SU and ATS. If Kansas City has its way in the run game, the under is a likely outcome, similar to the first meeting.
Injury Report
Stacy McGee – The Raiders missed McGee on the defensive line while trying to stop the Bills run game. Run defense hasn’t been the team’s strong point, but without McGee, the unit isn’t as good. McGee is dealing with an ankle injury that could prevent him from playing against Spencer Ware and the Chiefs.
Philip Gaines – The more recognized names in the Chiefs secondary are Eric Berry and Marcus Peters, but Gaines is just as important to the success of K.C.’s pass defense. The Chiefs could be without their starting cornerback on Thursday as he continues to heal from a knee injury and that likely means more passes thrown at his backup Steven Nelson.
Matchup to Watch
The Raiders have played better defensively lately, but two areas that continue to hamper their progress is stopping the run and defending tight ends. Unfortunately for Oakland, those are two areas where the Chiefs excel. When the teams met in Week 6, the Chiefs ground out a 26-10 win by running for 183 yards. Spencer Ware was the biggest threat going for 131 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. K.C. threw the ball just 23 times in that meeting with Alex Smith completing 19 of his attempts. Travis Kelce had a team-high tying three catches with nine different players catching a pass.
It was a typical Chiefs game, one in which they controlled the tempo with their ground attack, didn’t turn the ball over and relied on the defense to produce a few takeaways. And it’s a style that the Raiders don’t like. Oakland wants the football in the hands of Derek Carr to engineer the fast break. If the Chiefs are to have success, they must produce in the run game first. Oakland ranks 29th in run defense and was shredded by LeSean McCoy and the Bills on Sunday for 212 yards and three touchdowns.
Free ATS Pick
I think it’s safe to say the Raiders have arrived. We had questions about their defense early in the year when they put up historically bad numbers in the first two games. But the group has gotten better behind the solid play and leadership of Khalil Mack. Oakland survived a few scares which had us thinking they may have had lady luck on their side. They’ve proven that they can execute in the clutch and make the big plays to secure victories. That’s the sign of good team.
But it was the Chiefs who did everything right when the teams played earlier this season. It was a textbook K.C. game that frustrated Oakland into mistakes and completely took the Raiders out of it. The Chiefs ran the football and controlled the clock keeping Carr and his offense off the field. The Chiefs will enjoy similar success against a shaky group of run stoppers, and like we saw in Atlanta, Andy Reid isn’t afraid to try something out of the norm to shake things up. That also gives the Raiders a different look so they can’t concentrate on the run. K.C. has a unique home field advantage and a recent stretch of success against the Raiders will continue with a cover victory.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 27, Raiders 23
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