Technically speaking, the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints enter this weekend with slim, yet virtually mathematically impossible playoff hopes. By the time they take the field this Monday, they'll probably both be eliminated, but that isn't going to make this game any less fun for the neutral observer and bettor.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Detroit Lions +3
New Orleans Saints -3
Over/Under 50
ODDS ANALYSIS
Any time you get two teams like this who are going to finish below .500 on the season on the field at the same time, the results are fairly predictable in terms of who the betting favorite is going to be. The Saints are the hosts in this one, and they're favored by three, the value of home field advantage. It's tough to find fault in that line, knowing that motivation is a problem for both teams, and the both have been wildly inconsistent.
The total in this game is made higher due to the presence of the Saints and their woeful defense. Sure, that unit came up big last week against Tampa Bay down the stretch, but that's certainly not the norm. The total of 50 is high by today's standards, but it wouldn't be shocking to anyone to see a game which far eclipses that mark.
WHEN THE DETROIT LIONS HAVE THE BALL
The Saints haven't had a game this year in which they haven't allowed a passing touchdown, and last week's 182 yards allowed to Jameis Winston and the Bucs was their best mark of the entire season. This team has allowed at least three passing touchdowns in six out of 12 games this season, and live bettors will have a hard time betting against Matt Stafford at least coming close to that mark in this one.
Stafford has had three straight games with at least two touchdown passes, and the smart man would bank on that happening again in this game.
The real key to us is the involvement of Calvin Johnson. No, Megatron isn't the same receiver now that he was in the past, but he certainly can still turn a game on its head. The Detroit offense just isn't the same without him, as was demonstrated last week when it was embarrassed by the Rams and their stingy, yet generally underwhelming defense. Johnson had just one catch for 16 yards in the game, and it took until deep into the fourth quarter to get that reception.
If Johnson is a big part of this offense, the Lions should thrive. If not, this could be a long game for Detroit's live bettors.
WHEN THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS HAVE THE BALL
Give Drew Brees credit. He could've let his team down at the tail end of this wasted season. He doesn't have great receivers around him, and he still has to be frustrated at Mickey Loomis for trading away Jimmy Graham in the offseason. His defense stinks, and by all accounts, he only has three games left with Sean Payton, then man who coached him into a Hall of Famer.
Yes, the ship is starting to crumble in New Orleans, but Brees gave NFL live bettors a real treat last week, holding off the Buccaneers as a short underdog.
If Willie Snead, Brandin Cooks, Benjamin Watson and the gang are all clicking together, the Saints are able to put points up in a hurry. However, live bettors need to keep watch out for penalties. They come out of nowhere of course, but all too often, that holding penalty or illegal formation ends up ruining a drive which otherwise had a ton of promise.
This offense is better than 24.8 points per game suggests, but too many drives end in short punts or field goal tries than should be the case.
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