Given the state of the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts can hardly be counted out. But Indy failed in its quest to regain the division lead and has to win its remaining games and get some help in order to avoid missing the postseason in consecutive seasons for the first time in nearly 20 years. The Minnesota Vikings are faced with a similar dilemma and this Week 15 tussle could be an elimination game for two teams that entered the season with playoff aspirations.
This contest in Week 15 of the regular season will go down Sunday, December 18, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indianapolis Colts +4
Minnesota Vikings -4
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The Vikings opened as 4-point chalk and the early spread wagers have been evenly distributed so the oddsmakers nailed this one. The Colts all but lost their chance at the postseason and motivation becomes a factor for them. The Vikings have played plenty of close games this season and this one is likely to be among them. The total opened at 44 and the over is getting plenty of early action forcing a half point spike. The Vikes play low-scoring affairs, particularly at home, and the total is too high for my liking.
Injury Report
Jake Mewhort – The Colts’ offensive line sustained a blow when its starting guard exited last game with an apparent knee injury. Mewhort is a constant on the group that has seen plenty of shuffling over the course of the season. The Colts have allowed 40 sacks this season, the second-most in the NFL.
Trae Waynes – For the second straight week the Vikings secondary took a hit after Waynes left the Jaguars game with a concussion. Safety Harrison Smith went down the week before with an ankle injury. If the pass rush fails, the Vikings could be in trouble against Andrew Luck and the Colts aerial attack.
Matchup to Watch
The Vikings defense continues to keep them in games and has been one of the best units in the league for most of the season. Minnesota has been really good at getting after the opposing quarterback, which is a big reason why the team ranks third in pass defense. And they’ve been able to rack up the third-highest sack total in the league on the strength of their front line, which allows the back levels to remain intact in obvious passing downs.
The front line of Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter and Brian Robinson has accounted for 25 of the teams 35 sacks this season and each had a hand in bringing down Blake Bortles on Sunday. Griffen totaled two sacks with Hunter and Robinson getting one each. The Colts have struggled in pass protection this season, allowing their quarterback to be sacked 40 times. Andrew Luck was flustered into a poor performance by the Texans when he tossed a pair of picks and turned the ball over on a strip sack.
Free ATS Pick
After suffering through a horrendous stretch that saw them go from being the last unbeaten team in the league to a club that looked like it wouldn’t win another game, the Vikings got a big victory over the weekend. It was the Jags, so take that into account, but Minnesota looked like it had an offense with Sam Bradford picking the fourth-ranked pass defense apart. For the Vikings, however, it’s about defense, and the group looked strong again in picking up just their second win in the last eight games.
The Colts likely blew their chance at a postseason berth with a home loss to the Texans in a game Luck played poorly. He was hounded by a good Houston defense and committed three costly turnovers. The Vikings will apply similar pressure, and while they may not get the same results in the turnover department, it should be enough to limit Indy’s scoring opportunities. And Bradford will face a team that isn’t as staunch as some of the others, leading the Vikings to a home victory and keeping their playoff hopes alive for another week.
NFL Odds: Vikings 23, Colts 20
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