The Houston Texans picked a great time to come up with their biggest win of the season. Mired in a losing streak that dropped them back to the rest of the pack in the AFC South, the Texans used an old-school approach to end the slide and regain control for the division’s only postseason bid. That win over the Colts, however, will be meaningless unless the Texans can follow it up with a victory over the division’s bottom feeder Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 15 game is set for Sunday, December 18, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5
Houston Texans -5.5
Over/Under 40.5
Odds Analysis
The Texans were 3-point road dogs when these teams met in Week 10 and they covered with a straight up 24-21 win. Houston has proven to be much stronger at home and the line was adjusted with the Texans opening at -6. However, early money on the visitors pushed the spread down a half point and further movement is expected. The Texans have owned the division with nine straight wins against AFC South foes, and they’ve beaten the Jags in each of last five meetings going 4-1 ATS in that span.
Injury Report
Chris Ivory – Jacksonville’s running game has taken a step backward with the hamstring injury to Ivory. He’s missed a few games along with Denard Robinson, leaving T.J. Yeldon as the starter. That wouldn’t be a bad thing if Yeldon wasn’t nursing a leg injury himself. Fourth-string back Corey Grant was forced into action and gained 13 yards on four carries against Minnesota.
Johnathan Joseph – The Texans starting cornerback could be out for a few more games with a rib injury and that opens up the secondary. While the defense played well in a win over the Colts, Joseph’s replacement Robert Nelson was flagged three times for pass interference, though one was declined after the play resulted in a 35-yard completion.
Matchup to Watch
Houston’s struggles in the red zone have been a concern all season and it’s an area that could prove to be the team’s downfall in trying to win a division title. The Texans overcame another poor red zone performance to defeat the Colts last Sunday, and the game was much closer than it needed to be after the defense did a number on Andrew Luck and Indy’s offense.
After intercepting Luck twice and starting drives inside the Colts 20-yard line, the Texans squandered opportunities and settled for a field goal each time. The second field goal staked Houston to a 16-3 lead in the third quarter and when the Colts scored a touchdown on their ensuing drive, you could almost feel what was going to happen. However, the Texans’ defense rose to the occasion and helped get the victory. But Houston’s failure to score touchdowns is worrisome. Their red zone touchdown percentage of 45.2 is better than just two teams in the league and the defense won’t be able to bail them out every time.
Free ATS Pick
At least the Jaguars didn’t turn the ball over in the Vikings game. Otherwise the result was all too familiar. In another typical Jags game, they played well for stretches but couldn’t sustain anything on offense and eventually dropped a game that was within reach if they had been able to make a few plays along the way. But that’s what separates the good teams from the bad ones. The good teams are able to make plays. The Jaguars just haven’t been able to do that.
The Texans are presented with a glorious opportunity to take control of the AFC South following their win in Indianapolis. With two home games before their season-ending visit to Tennessee, it’s the Texans’ title to lose. There are still concerns about Brock Osweiler and his ability as a starter in the league, but Houston broke out a solid run game behind Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue. If the Texans can build off that and take some pressure off Osweiler, they offense could be dangerous. They don’t have to be lethal and they likely won’t against the Jags, which will keep this game close, but the defense should be able to stymie Blake Bortles and a Jacksonville offense that will struggle to run the ball.
NFL Odds: Texans 24, Jaguars 20
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