It’s hard to push a Tom Brady vs. Trevor Siemian matchup when the New England Patriots visit the Denver Broncos in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. The storyline has changed since Peyton Manning retired and the Broncos are in a struggle just to make the postseason. Denver denied Brady and the Pats a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions with their win in the conference title game last season. New England has a chance to do the same by preventing the Broncos from reaching the postseason this year.
Watch this regular season Week 15 matchup live on Sunday, December 18, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field.
Odds Analysis
Expect to see the Patriots as a slight road favorite when the line hits the board. The Broncos have fallen apart over the past few games and could see their playoff chances evaporate with another loss. That, and playing the best team in the AFC in a championship game rematch, should be enough to keep the Broncos motivated. New England shredded Baltimore’s top defense and could do the same to the Broncos, who will be minus some key figures on that side of the ball. The Pats are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three visits to Mile High, but I see that changing this week.
Injury Report
Danny Amendola – The loss of Amendola didn’t hurt Brady in the passing attack on Monday night, but it sure did affect the Pats’ return game. With Amendola not around to return kicks, New England almost gift wrapped a win for Baltimore. Cyrus Jones allowed a punt to hit his foot and the Ravens recovered turning the miscue into a touchdown. On the ensuing kickoff, Matthew Slater fumbled and the Ravens converted that into a score.
Todd Davis – The Broncos lost another inside linebacker when Davis exited last game with an oblique problem. Denver was already without Brandon Marshall against the Titans as he experienced a flare up of the hamstring issue that forced him from action earlier this season. Tennessee ran the ball at will racking up 180 yards against the backups.
Revenge Angle
These teams met twice last season, with Denver winning both times on its home turf. In November, the Broncos handed New England its first loss of the season after 10 consecutive wins. It started a 2-4 end-of-the-season slide that prevented the Pats from earning the No. 1 playoff seed and ultimately set up the second meeting. The Broncos pummeled Brady in the AFC title game and held on for the 18-16 win that sent them to the Super Bowl. Denver has a much different look this season, most notably at quarterback following the retirement of Manning.
This AFC championship rematch offers the Patriots the chance to get some revenge. The Broncos have won the last three meetings in Denver, beating the Pats in the 2013 playoffs to start the steak. Brady gets a shot to avenge that 2-point loss that kept the Pats from a repeat opportunity. This game also has serious playoff implications for the Broncos and a loss would seriously dampen their chances of reaching the postseason.
Free ATS Pick
The Broncos suffered probably their worst loss of the season Sunday in Tennessee and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. With defeats in two of their last three games, the Broncos are clinging to the second wild card spot, but the grip is loosening. Denver has put the entire offense on the aching shoulder of Siemian and he hasn’t responded. Against the Titans, the Broncos ran the ball just nine times for 18 yards and let Siemian chuck 51 passes in an attempt to battle back from an early deficit.
It didn’t help that the Denver defense was gouged for 180 yards on the ground in what was a poor display. The Broncos could do nothing right in the 13-10 loss and barely got by Jacksonville the week before. It’s a bleak outlook for the Broncos as they prepare to take on Brady and the Pats. And they’ll do it without two key defenders as Marshall and Davis are both out. That was part of the problem in defending the run at Tennessee and Brady is a genius at recognizing and picking apart defenses. Along with the revenge factor, the Pats are poised for big road win.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Broncos 20
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