It’s been quite the turnaround season for the Tennessee Titans, and one they don’t want to see end on January 1. The Titans are in the playoff hunt this late in a season for the first time since 2011 and they need to finish with a better record than Houston to reach the second season. While a showdown with the Texans looms at the end of the season, Tennessee has two hurdles to clear before then and their Week 15 contest against the Kansas City Chiefs is the biggest.
This contest in Week 15 of the regular season will go down Sunday, December 18, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee Titans +5.5
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
Over/Under 43
Odds Analysis
We’ve seen plenty of movement on the line already which tells us this could be a volatile matchup. The Chiefs opened at -6 and the line was wagered down a point before settling at its current number. Both teams are playing good football and have plenty at stake so this sets up to be a close encounter, closer than the current line indicates. The run game is pivotal for both sides and with chilly conditions on tap, scoring will be at a premium. The total has been bet down a point and could drop even further before kickoff.
Injury Report
Jurrell Casey – The Titans have one of the better run defenses in the NFL but the group will be tested by the Chiefs strong ground game. It could also be in trouble if Casey hasn’t healed from the foot injury that kept him out of the last game. The Pro Bowl run stopper is a beast in the middle of the line and the team’s depth will be challenged following the loss of Karl Klug.
Derrick Johnson – The Chiefs suffered a crippling blow to their defense when Johnson ruptured his Achilles on a non-contact play against the Raiders. Johnson was an every down player and equally good against the run and pass. He also served as the quarterback of the defense from his linebacker spot. Frank Zombo, his likely replacement, isn’t Derrick Johnson.
Matchup to Watch
The Titans aren’t overwhelming offensively, but they are efficient and they have a potent ground game led by DeMarco Murray. They also have Marcus Mariota, who is unflappable when the team gets in the red zone. Tennessee tops the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring six points on 71.4 percent of their drives. Mariota is a big reason why. The No. 2 pick in the 2015 has thrown 17 touchdowns with no interceptions when his team gets inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He also completes nearly 63 percent of his passes in red zone plays.
Murray is another reason why the Titans have been so successful. The league’s second-leading rusher has nine touchdowns on the year with eight coming inside the red zone. He also carries the ball 92 percent of the time when the Titans are inside the 5-yard line. Unpredictability keeps the defense guessing and the Titans have that with their two biggest weapons.
Free ATS Pick
The Titans may have turned a corner with their win over the Broncos. They’ve won games with Mariota at the helm, but they always needed him to play great to snatch that victory. On Sunday, Mariota was far from great and the Titans were still able to upend the defending champs. They did it in classic Mike Mularkey style. The Titans churned out 180 yards on the ground and didn’t allow Denver to do anything offensively. Sometimes the game turns into a slugfest and the Titans proved they could hang with the best in that situation.
Duplicating that effort isn’t going to be easy and the Titans will need more than six completed passes from Mariota to win on the road. They’ll likely get a look at themselves when the Chiefs lean on their ground game. This one will be won in the trenches with both teams trying to impose their will running the football. The Chiefs are at home, which is a big advantage, and they have a few more play makers on both sides of the ball, which will ultimately be the deciding factor in a low scoring affair.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 18, Titans 15
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