The 2015 regular season can be wrapped up in a nice, neat package for the Cincinnati Bengals if they can pull off an upset on Monday Night Football. They'll have a first round bye wrapped up in the playoffs in the AFC and know they don't have another meaningful game for three weeks. Even if they lose, they still have a shot to lock up that bye next week with a win in Week 17 against Baltimore.
The story isn't nearly the same for the Denver Broncos. They've gone from one of the last undefeated teams in the NFL to a team on the verge of a disaster. Assuming the Chiefs win on Sunday, a loss to the Bengals would knock Denver out of the lead in the AFC West, a division it has led all season long. What's worse is that all of a sudden, a loss in Week 17 could see the Broncos all the way out of the playoffs in what would amount to be an epic collapse.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Denver Broncos -3.5
Over/Under 40.5
ODDS ANALYSIS
There's just a ton on the line for both of these teams at this point. Both have huge question marks at the quarterback spot, and both have suffocating defenses which can go huge stretches of time without allowing anything.
That's why this spread makes all the sense in the world and why it hasn't moved all week long. The Broncos are favored at -3.5, which more or less is just the value of home field advantage, while the total of 40.5 is understandably low.
WHEN THE CINCINNATI BENGALS HAVE THE BALL
The Bengals absolutely have to keep the offense simple for A.J. McCarron. He played like the consummate game manager last week in San Francisco, throwing for just 192 yards on 15-of-21 passing. For the most part, he's only going to have one or two reads in his progression, and he's going to be instructed to throw the ball away when he doesn't have what he wants.
Hue Jackson will dial up bombs from time to time as well. A.J. Green is still one of the best in the league at locating the ball in the air and going and getting it, and he'll be asked to do so on at least a few occasions on Monday.
Live bettors though, should be ready to pounce if this strategy has to change. If the ground game isn't working and the corners are starting to squat on those shorter in and out routes, Jackson is going to have to get more creative with McCarron, something that generally isn't advisable.
WHEN THE DENVER BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL
Gary Kubiak has to be scratching his head right now. His offense has moments where it really looks strong. The ball gets out of Brock Osweiler's hands really quickly at times, and when he's decisive, Vernon Davis and Demaryius Thomas can make him look really good.
That said, Osweiler has a shoulder problem, and Peyton Manning is still just getting over his foot issue. Neither is totally healthy, and it's fair to say that neither has been totally effective either. Let's not forget that the Broncos have gone consecutive games without scoring a single offensive point in the second halves of games. If that continues, live bettors will have real opportunities to fade the hosts.
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