If this game is anything like the earlier meeting, football fans are in for a treat on Christmas Day. All the pressure is on the Denver Broncos, who have lost two straight and three of four to fall out of the playoff hunt in the AFC. Their slide began when the Kansas City Chiefs posted an epic overtime victory in Denver last month. Now, the Broncos can put a damper on the Chiefs postseason plans with a much-needed win when the clubs hook up at Arrowhead in Week 16.
Watch this regular season Week 16 matchup live on Sunday, December 25, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Denver Broncos +4
Kansas City Chiefs -4
Over/Under 37.5
Odds Analysis
When the teams met in Denver in Week 12, the Chiefs were 3.5-point dogs and won the game outright 30-27 in a slugfest. We’ve seen some regression offensively by both teams and a winter storm with freezing temperatures and gusty winds could hit the area. The total has been adjusted to represent those factors and the under has plenty of value. Kansas City has yet to lose consecutive games this season and has had a sharp response after a defeat. The Broncos are in a tough spot with locker room turmoil and quarterback who has lost his confidence.
Injury Report
Derek Wolfe – The Broncos lost their underrated defensive end to a neck injury over the weekend and he’s questionable to play against the Chiefs. Wolfe is a proven run stopper and his absence could leave some room for Spencer Ware to navigate. Denver will also likely be without linebacker Brandon Marshall, who continues to battle a hamstring injury.
Virgil Green – Denver also took a hit on the offensive side, particularly at the tight end spot, which now has Jeff Heuerman at the top of the depth chart following concussions to Green and A.J. Derby. Both players entered the protocol leaving their availability in question. Green has been the starter but Derby has been the first option in the passing games since his acquisition from New England.
Matchup to Watch
Kansas City’s inability to punch the ball into the end zone cost them a victory last weekend and it’s been an ongoing concern for the club. The Chiefs managed just one touchdown on four red zone trips and a costly Alex Smith end zone interception in the third quarter proved fatal. With the Chiefs leading 17-7, Smith was picked on a third down play from the Titans 7-yard line, denying K.C. points that eventually came back to haunt them. Against Tampa Bay in Week 11, Smith tossed a fourth quarter pick and the Bucs turned that into a 19-17 win. Should the Chiefs not win the AFC West or even qualify for the playoffs, those are two blunders that will haunt them.
But it hasn’t just been two plays and Smith has proven to be a reliable and accurate passer throughout his career. However, the Chiefs are converting their red zone opportunities at just 44.4 percent, which ranks among the lowest in the league. They better make the most of their opportunities against a stingy Broncos defense or the Chiefs could be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture.
Free ATS Pick
For some reason the Chiefs kept the ball out of Tyreek Hill’s hands against Tennessee. The electrifying Hill had just one touch on offense and the play went for a 68-yard scoring run. Hill was the difference when the Chiefs beat the Broncos in Denver a few weeks ago and they better get him the ball a few more times if they want to have success against that defense.
The Broncos have no such threat and their offense has been awful the past few games. It wasn’t a juggernaut to begin with, but Siemian did enough in the passing game to get some early season victories. The struggles on offense led to a postgame ruckus between players on each unit. Though Gary Kubiak downplayed the squabble, it sure sounds like the club is becoming divided. When the defense plays as well as it has and the offense doesn’t do its part, there are going to be some upset players. The temperature is expected to be low and a winter storm is projected to hit the area with strong winds. The Broncos have no ground game and relying on Siemian has become a gamble, even in good conditions. The Chiefs are better equipped to win a ground game and they will in a low-scoring affair.
NFL Odds: Chiefs 20, Broncos 13
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