The Detroit Lions are taking a longer look in their rearview mirror and the object that is closer than it appears is the Packers. The Lions still sit atop the NFC North, but their lead shrunk last week and another loss could leave them in a tie heading into a showdown with the Pack in the regular season finale. That scenario, at least for Detroit, looks quite possible with a Week 16 road matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, the best team in the NFC.
This matchup in Week 16 of the regular season will take place on Monday, December 26, 2016, at 8:30 p.m. ET at ATT Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Detroit Lions +7
Dallas Cowboys -7
Over/Under 43
Odds Analysis
The public likes the points in this one with over 60 percent of the spread wagers coming in on the underdog Lions. And it looks like a good take as the Cowboys have failed to cover in their last four games with each one decided by six points or fewer. We could see some movement on the line if the Giants are to lose on Thursday night. That scenario hands the division and top seed to the Cowboys, leaving them nothing to play for. The total spiked to its current number after opening at 41.5 with 77 percent of the early wagers siding with the over.
Injury Report
Darius Slay – The Lions lost their top cornerback to a hamstring injury last weekend and he’s unlikely to play against the Cowboys. Slay would have drawn Dez Bryant on a majority of coverages, instead the Lions will turn to Johnson Bademosi to try and shutdown Dallas’ top wideout.
Matchup to Watch
One area preventing the Lions from having a great defense as opposed to just a good one is their red zone touchdown percentage. Detroit has the 10th-best scoring defense in the NFL allowing 20.4 points per game, but that number could be much lower with greater success stopping opponents inside their 20-yard line.
The Lions allowed the Giants to score touchdowns on both their red zone trips in Sunday’s 17-6 loss and Detroit has allowed 28 touchdowns in 45 opponent red zone drives. Their 62.2 percent rate is 27th in the league. And the Lions will face one of the better red zone offenses in Dallas. The Cowboys have converted eight of their last 10 red zone drives into touchdown and possess the fourth-best red zone offense at 64.7 percent. It’s not surprising considering the weapons in Zeke Elliott, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Dak Prescott.
Free ATS Pick
If not for the Giants, the Cowboys would have a perfect record this season. Dallas put any questions there might have been about Prescott and the quarterback situation to rest by bouncing back from the worst offensive performance of the season to upend the Buccaneers last Sunday. Tony Romo remains on the bench and the Cowboys continue to roll. They can lock up the NFC East and the top seed in the conference with a win or a Giants loss on Thursday. If the Giants do lose ahead of the Cowboys tilt, we have to wonder how Jason Garrett handles his troops on Monday night.
The Lions have to be concerned about the finger on Matthew Stafford’s throwing hand following a loss to the Giants. Detroit failed to score a touchdown and the fourth quarter magic was effectively squelched by New York. The numbers were decent and Stafford said the finger wasn’t an issue, but there were some wobbly tosses that missed the mark. It could also have something to do with the Giants defense, which has been dominant lately. But the Lions need to get it straightened out or the once promising season could end short of a playoff berth and the schedule isn’t doing them any favors. The Cowboys are having too much fun and they won’t take a game off even if the division is clinched. The Lions just aren’t good enough to beat the Cowboys on the road, but they are in a position to cover the spread.
NFL Odds: Cowboys 24, Lions 20
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