The Miami Dolphins cleared the first hurdle in their quest for a playoff berth without Ryan Tannehill. The next step gets a little tougher. The Dolphins whacked the Jets last week with Matt Moore doing his best Tom Brady imitation by throwing four scoring passes in a lopsided victory. To reach the postseason for the first time since 2008, the Fins just need to win out. With Rex Ryan’s job on the line, it won’t be easy in the Week 16 matchup with the Buffalo Bills.
This contest in Week 16 of the regular season will go down Saturday, December 24, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at New Era Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Miami Dolphins +4
Buffalo Bills -4
Over/Under 42.5
Odds Analysis
The Bills were 2.5-point chalk when the teams met in Week 7 and oddsmakers feel strongly about Buffalo on its home turf. The Dolphins posted the straight up 28-25 win back then with Tannehill in the lineup and Jay Ajayi running for 214 yards, but it’s a different outlook this time around. Buffalo is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven December home games and the line has been wagered to its current number after the Bills opened as a 3-point favorite.
Injury Report
Byron Maxwell – Miami’s top cornerback sustained an ankle injury that could keep him out of the Buffalo game. Maxwell has been tasked with shadowing the opponents top receiver much of the season and has done a marvelous job. His absence could open the field for the Bills to take some shots. But throwing the football isn’t Buffalo’s strength.
Cordy Glenn – Buffalo’s starting left tackle remains sidelined with a back injury, leaving the job to Cyrus Kouandjio. While the line had little trouble handling the Browns last week, it will be a more difficult chore against the likes of Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake on the Dolphins front. The Bills have directed their ground game to the other side with Glenn out of action.
Matchup to Watch
Things couldn’t have gone smoother for Moore in his first start since taking over for the injured Tannehill. The Jets offered little resistance and the veteran backup picked them apart by throwing four touchdown passes among his 12 completions. The offense was efficient and Moore was rarely pressured by a defensive front that was supposedly New York’s strength. It’ll be different this time around.
Moore has had limited playing time over the past several seasons as the understudy and the way to rattle him is to bring pressure. Nobody does that better than Ryan and he has the horses to do it. The Bills harassed Cleveland’s Robert Griffin III all afternoon, sacking him five times and forcing him from the pocket countless others. Lorenzo Alexander posted 1.5 sacks and ranks among the league leaders with 11.5. The Bills have five players with at least 3.5 sacks on the season and their 38 total sacks are the third-most in the league.
Free ATS Pick
December football in Buffalo is always an adventure and this game will be no different. The Bills are built for a game like this with a punishing ground game and swarming defense. It’s the easiest way to beat the elements. Expect to see plenty of LeSean McCoy as the Bills look to control the clock on the ground. Buffalo has the league’s top run offense with McCoy accounting for over 1,100 yards and Tyrod Taylor a threat. The Bills don’t throw the football a lot and they don’t have to when the run game works. But if they fall behind, this isn’t a team capable of playing catch up.
This figures to be a much stiffer test for Moore and the Dolphins offense. Throwing the football will be a challenge and if the Fins can’t open holes for Ajayi, Moore could be in for a long afternoon. The loss of center Mike Pouncey has affected Miami’s run game and the Bills will key on Ajayi. Stopping him is a priority and the Bills will have success. Buffalo isn’t out of the playoff picture and Rex is fighting for his job. The Bills will control the ball with their run game and Moore will have a tough time replicating his effort from a week ago. Go with the Bills for the cover win with points tough to come by.
NFL Odds: Bills 23, Dolphins 17
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