A few weeks back Aaron Rodgers said the Green Bay Packers would have to run the table to make the playoffs. Well, the Pack moved a step closer by beating the Bears for their fourth straight win. There is still work to be done, but the Packers are playing their best football of the season at a time when they need it most. It’s been the opposite for the Minnesota Vikings, who had their proud defense get torched in a loss that all but eliminated them from the postseason. They’ll get a chance to dent the Pack’s playoff hopes in a Week 16 tilt.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 16 game is set for Saturday, December 24, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Minnesota Vikings +6.5
Green Bay Packers -6.5
Over/Under 43.5
Odds Analysis
A slight shift in the early line has evened out the betting for this game. The Packers opened at -7 and the early money favored the visitors, forcing the line to fall a half point. Green Bay was a 1.5-point favorite when the teams played earlier this season and failed to cover in the 17-14 loss. That was during Minnesota’s 5-0 start and the Vikings have since gone 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS. Weather conditions will again be a factor, but the Packers have performed well in the cold, cashing the over in Chicago last week. The teams have cashed the under four straight times in the series and we will see that streak extended.
Injury Report
Harrison Smith – The Vikings have had their share of injuries this season, but none are bigger than the ankle sprain to their starting safety, who is the leader of the team’s defense. His absence was huge in the loss to Indianapolis. Minnesota had been immune to the big play for much of the season but the Vikes were scorched by the Colts, including a 50-yard scoring pass. Andrew Luck completed 21 of 28 attempts with two touchdowns.
Adam Thielen – Minnesota also lost its starting receiver to a neck injury after Thielen took a big hit. The offense has struggled all season and now the unit could be without one of Sam Bradford’s more reliable targets for Sunday’s encounter with the Packers.
Revenge Factor
Thanks to their current four-game winning streak, the Packers have put themselves in a good position to win the NFC North. They still have no margin for error as they trail the Lions by a game, but the Packers control their own destiny. Wins this week over the Vikings and in Week 17 over the Lions will give Green Bay the division crown. It’s an unlikely scenario to see the Packers in after a stretch more than a month ago had them reeling. Blowout losses to Washington and Tennessee, where the Pack allowed better than 40 points each time, had them at 4-6 with the postseason looking miles away.
Green Bay has figured it out, however, winning four straight since that slide and take on the reeling Vikings at the frozen tundra. And the Packers have a shot to avenge an earlier loss when the Vikings absolutely manhandled Rodgers and the offense. Rodgers had a difficult time evading defenders and was sacked five times while completing only 20 of 36 passes for 213 yards with a pick. The Pack had its lowest scoring game of the season in the 17-14 loss.
Free ATS Pick
The Packers need to win out and just in case extra motivation is needed, it was the Vikings who came to Lambeau in last season’s regular season finale and pulled out the 20-13 victory to claim the NFC North crown, ending Green Bay’s four-year run as division champs. That probably turned out to be a good thing since the Pack ended up playing Washington while the Vikings hosted Seattle, but it was a devastating home loss nonetheless.
The Packers are playing their best ball of the season and the Vikings continue to stumble. Even the return of Adrian Peterson wasn’t enough to get them out of their funk. And a worse sign for Minnesota is that the defense was taken apart by the Colts. The unit that has held the team together all season during the loss of Teddy Bridgewater and several offensive linemen just couldn’t do it any longer. The Packers have done damage even with the weather at numbing lows and the Vikings don’t have much fight left in them. The Pack gets a cover win.
NFL Odds: Packers 20, Vikings 13
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