The Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved they could run with the big boys. However, what they really needed was a victory, and they didn’t get that last week, putting an end to their five-game winning streak with a loss at Dallas. Now, the Bucs need help in order to break their nine-year playoff drought, but don’t expect the New Orleans Saints to roll over. In order to keep its playoff hopes alive, Tampa Bay will have to slow down an explosive offense in this Week 16 confrontation.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 16 game is set for Saturday, December 24, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Odds Analysis
With the Bucs playing the Sunday night game, the spread and total have yet to surface. However, the Saints will likely get the standard 3-points for home field advantage. With the exception of their clunker against Detroit, the Saints have produced big numbers at the Superdome and I expect them to be pissed off after their performance in Tampa a few weeks ago. The Bucs have surprised a lot of people, but their luck runs out with the pressure mounting.
Injury Report
William Gholston – One of the Bucs’ best run defenders, Gholston left last game with an elbow injury and the Cowboys had their way rushing the football. His absence allowed Dallas to amass 185 yards on the ground with Ezekiel Elliott accounting for 159 of those. Tampa entered the game allowing only 104.8 on the ground.
Demar Dotson – The Bucs have also been without one of their top offensive linemen as Dotson has sat the past two games with a concussion. There were protection issues in the Dallas game with Jameis Winston getting sacked four times and pressured into several missed throws and three interceptions.
Key Stat
Their two-game offensive funk ended with a thunderous display in the desert and the Saints produced their fourth 40-point game of the season, combining with the Cardinals for the most points in a NFL contest this season in their 48-41 win. It’s not a complete surprise that the Saints amassed 488 yards and 48 points rather it’s who they did it against that is. Arizona entered the week as the only team to surrender fewer than 300 yards per game, yet the Saints never let up in ending a slide that saw them score just one touchdown in the two previous games.
One area where New Orleans excels is extending drives and they Saints were masterful against the Cards. The Saints are the best in the league at converting on third down, entering the Cards game with a 48.3 percent conversion rate. That number improved when they earned a first down on 9 of 14 third down tries. The Saints also rank fifth in red zone percentage and scored on four of five trips inside the Arizona 20-yard line. New Orleans was saddled by the Bucs just two weeks ago, but in a controlled environment, the Saints can be lethal.
Free ATS Pick
The Bucs did a marvelous job shutting down Brees and the Saints’ offense in a 16-11 win just two weeks ago. Tampa Bay held New Orleans without a touchdown and intercepted three Brees offerings in the hard-fought victory. That’s a defeat that doesn’t sit well with Brees and Sean Payton and the duo is tremendous at making the right adjustments. The Saints didn’t help themselves in that game with penalties and poor field position. I expect a different scenario this time, especially with the Saints at home, where they have performed well for much of the season.
And the Bucs are in an awkward position, one many of the current players are not accustomed to. They are in the thick of a playoff race and need to win while receiving help from other teams. It’s a pressure-packed last two weeks and I feel the young Bucs might crumble. Also, don’t expect Brees to give them the game like he did in the earlier meeting. Getting to .500 is now the goal for the Saints and they move closer with a home win.
NFL Odds: Saints 30, Buccaneers 24
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