If there was an award for the best three-win team, the Chicago Bears would certainly be in the running. The Bears dropped another tough one last week, this time to their bitter rival Green Bay, and their last four defeats have all come to playoff contenders by a combined total of 18 points. Unfortunately for the Bears, being close doesn’t count and they need to win their remaining two games to avoid their worst season since 2002. That process starts with a Week 16 contest against the Washington Redskins.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 16 game is set for Saturday, December 24, 2016, at 1 p.m. ET at Soldier Field.
Odds Analysis
The spread and total have yet to hit the board following Washington’s participation in the Monday night game. The Redskins are the favorite in this one and I would expect to see the line open around -3. The Bears are just 1-4 SU in their last five games but they have covered each time for a nice 5-0 ATS run. Washington is 5-2 ATS on the road and the Skins are one of the best over bets on the total with the over at 11-3.
Injury Report
Jordan Reed – Washington’s tight end twice got off the ground grimacing in pain from a shoulder injury but remained in the game. He finally exited after throwing a punch and getting ejected by officials in an obvious reaction to a perceived cheap shot. Reed just returned from missing a game due to the same shoulder issue. He’s the team’s third-leading receiver and an integral part of the pass offense.
Will Compton – Missed the last game with a knee injury and isn’t expected to play against the Bears. Compton is the team’s defensive leader and play caller from his linebacker spot. With Compton and Su’a Cravens out, the Panthers owned the middle of the field with Jonathan Stewart running for 132 yards.
Matchup to Watch
The Bears would probably have a higher win total if they didn’t give the ball away as frequently as they do. Chicago turned the ball over four times to the Packers on Sunday and still had a chance to win the game. Matt Barkley must have gotten some pointers from Jay Cutler because he was responsible for all the giveaways. Barkley tossed three picks and lost a fumble but was able to rally the team back from a 27-10 third quarter deficit to tie the game late. However the defense surrendered another big play and the Packers booted a field goal with no time left to eke out the 30-27 victory.
The Bears are ahead of only the Jets and Jaguars with their minus-11 turnover differential and their inability to force turnovers has led to the wide margin. Chicago has turned the ball over 21 times, which ranks in the middle of the pack, but they have just 10 takeaways to tie for the fewest in the NFL. The added stress on the defense has led to several big plays and the Redskins are one of the best teams at dialing up big plays.
Free ATS Pick
Just to give you an idea of what kind of year it’s been for the Bears, they placed Eddie Royal on injured reserve this week, the team’s 18th player to go on IR. In such a violent sport injuries are and always have been a part of the game, but the Bears have been hit especially hard this season, which makes their play recently all the more surprising. They’ve won just once in their past five games, but the Bears have been right there with a chance to win every one. They lost to the Giants, Titans, Lions and Packers by a combined 18 points. Barkley has performed well and should be given a chance next season and Jordan Howard has emerged as a top back.
The defense can get after the quarterback but the secondary has been the hardest hit with injuries. Despite all the losses and injuries, John Fox has his players competing and playing hard. I’m not sure we can say the same about the Redskins, who flat out stunk in a game they needed to win against a team they could’ve beaten. Monday night’s loss was Washington’s third in the last four games putting the Skins playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. I’m not sure they can overcome that effort and the Bears are poised to become the best four-win team in the league.
NFL Odds: Bears 26, Redskins 23
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