Two teams with playoff aspirations at the beginning of the season will play the finale for nothing but pride. The Cincinnati Bengals were picked by many to reach the postseason for a sixth straight time, but the collapse started early and they were all but out of the picture by mid season. At least Marvin Lewis won’t have to answer any questions about his team’s playoff failures. The Baltimore Ravens were the nose of the football away from playing for a division title in Week 17 instead they’ll play out the string.
This matchup in Week 17 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, January 1, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Paul Brown Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Baltimore Ravens +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Over/Under 41.5
Odds Analysis
There has been no movement on the line since it opened at Cincinnati -2.5, but the betting public is siding with the visitors in early wagering. The Ravens could be a fragile group after their heart-breaking loss to the Steelers on Christmas day that cost them a chance at the division title. The Bengals have also won four straight at home in the series while going 3-1 ATS in that span. The Ravens covered as a 3.5-point dog when the teams met in Week 12, earning the 19-14 victory that cashed the under. The total opened at 41.5, the same number the first meeting closed with.
Injury Report
Jimmy Smith – The Ravens shut down their top cornerback due to a high ankle sprain. Smith missed the last game and would have drawn coverage on Antonio Brown, who caught 10 of his 11 targets, including the game-winning touchdown with nine seconds left on the clock.
Tyler Eifort – The Bengals’ offensive struggles could be attributed to the loss of their star tight end for much of the season. Eifort missed the first six games of the year recovering from ankle surgery and the Bengals never scored more than 23 points. There was increased production once he returned, but a back injury landed him on injured reserve. Cincy again had difficulty moving the ball with Eifort and A.J. Green sidelined last week.
Key Stat
The Bengals were able to reach the postseason in each of the past five seasons because their offense was one of the best at scoring points. Cincy averaged better than 21.5 points per game over those previous seasons, but their production has fallen by a touchdown in 2016 compared to what they were able to do last year. It’s been a complete collapse by the Bengals and one area that needs to be addressed is the offensive line.
Andy Dalton was sacked three times over the weekend increasing the team’s total of sacks allowed to 40, the fifth-highest in the league. A concerning stat indeed since the line surrendered just 32 sacks last season. The sack total is the Bengals highest since 2012 and it’s just the third time Cincy has allowed at least 40 sacks in a season since 2009. Dalton didn’t get much help from a reconfigured line. Guard Clint Boling is out with a shoulder injury and Andrew Whitworth moved to his spot. Tackles Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher struggled against the Texans’ edge rushers and if something doesn’t change quickly, Dalton could spend more time on the turf.
Free ATS Pick
Cincinnati has been out of the playoff picture for some time, so their situation isn’t as bad as the Ravens. Baltimore was inches away from playing for the AFC North title this week, instead it’s a meaningless end of the year contest against a division rival. The Ravens’ defense, which had been one of the top units in the league all season, was torched in the final quarter at Pittsburgh, giving up long touchdown drives on the final three possessions and costing them any chance at the postseason.
We can blame the defense for this downfall, but the Ravens are lacking consistent play-makers on offense. There may not have been a need for a goal line stand to get a victory if Baltimore was able to convert on their chances. They scored two touchdowns on five red zone trips and came away with just one touchdown on their first eight drives that all made it into Steelers territory. The Bengals are without their top performers on offense, so this one sets up to be grinder. Cincy cashed it in a while back and the Ravens will close the season with a road victory that plays below the total.
NFL Odds: Ravens 22, Bengals 16
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