The Minnesota Vikings look set to grab a first-round bye in the NFL Playoffs. A win over the Chicago Bears in Week 17 would lock up the spot. Minnesota has already knocked off Chicago once this season, but that was not an easy victory for the Vikings. They barely squeaked by the Bears 20-17. That was the game where Case Keenum supplanted Sam Bradford as the team’s starter though, and the Vikes have played great ever since then.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 17 game is set for Sunday, December 31, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
Chicago Bears +12.5
Minnesota Vikings -12.5
Over/Under 39.5
Odds Analysis
There are typically a lot of wonky results in Week 17, so don’t be surprised if this line moves down closer to kickoff.
However, Minnesota has been one of the best teams to bet on over the last two or so months. The Vikings are 9-1 ATS and have covered each of their last three spreads in which they were favored by a touchdown or more.
Chicago has only won twice in the last two months, knocking off Cincinnati and Cleveland. However, the defense has been pretty solid during this time. They have really played well in December, holding opponents to an average of 11.2 PPG. Each of those games finished under the total.
Matchup to Watch
It’s hard to put the blame for the Bears offensive woes entirely on Mitchell Trubisky’s shoulders. Trubisky hasn’t been that bad for a rookie since taking over the starting job. He isn’t throwing a ton of interceptions, but hasn’t been making many plays either. A lot of that is the fault of a subpar wide receiving corps.
Injuries have really hurt this unit. Kevin White and Cameron Meredith were expected to be the top two wide receivers heading into this season with Zach Miller being the team’s primary tight end. Unfortunately, Meredith never saw a down of action this season, and the injury-prone White suffered another season-ending injury after the first game. Miller played well for two months before going down with a career-threatening injury causing the team to fall further behind the eight ball.
Now, the main three options are Kendall Wright, Josh Bellamy, and Dontrelle Inman. None of the three are ranked in the top 45 in Football Outsiders’ ranking of wide receivers. Wright is the best of the bunch, but has only gone for 70 receiving yards or more twice this season.
They will have a hard time getting open against Minnesota’s defensive backs. The Vikings boast one of the five best pass defenses in the NFL and have a fantastic cornerback in Xavier Rhodes.
Player to Watch
Case Keenum has had an unbelievable season. He has piloted the Vikings to a 12-3 record to his point and has seemingly gained confidence with each game.
Keenum isn’t just tossing 20 or 25 passes a game either. In most games, he has put it in the air 30 or more times and has moved the ball efficiently. He has completed over 67 percent of his passes and has only tossed seven interceptions.
He has been able to effectively use his wide receivers all year long. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have had very nice seasons with Keenum throwing them the ball.
Free ATS Pick
Chicago’s defense has been decent this season. It is in the top-half of the NFL and was able to effectively stop Minnesota earlier this year. The Vikings do have something to play for, but this spread is too high. All Minnesota needs to do is win, and it doesn’t have to worry about covering the number. Even though the Vikes are 12-3, they have only won by 10 or more points six times this season. With that in mind, back the Bears.
NFL Odds: Vikings 24, Bears 17
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