This game would have had so much more drama if not for the outcomes of last week’s games. The Cleveland Browns got the monkey off their collective backs and won’t have to worry about becoming the second team in league history to finish 0-16. The Pittsburgh Steelers erased all doubt about the AFC North winner by knocking off Baltimore to secure its fifth division title under Mike Tomlin. Cleveland hasn’t won consecutive games in over two years, so they have that to play for in Week 17.
This contest in Week 17 of the regular season will go down Sunday, January 1, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Heinz Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Cleveland Browns +7
Pittsburgh Steelers -7
Over/Under 44
Odds Analysis
The unpredictability of Week 17 played out right in front of us with this game. Pittsburgh opened as a 12.5-point favorite, but with several starters likely riding the pine in a can’t-go-anywhere game for the Steelers, the spread fell to -7. Still, the betting public hasn’t been swayed by Cleveland’s first victory of the year with 73 percent of the spread wagers on the home team. The total also dipped slightly from its opening of 45.5, a number that seems high for a Landry Jones led offense.
Injury Report
Robert Griffin III – He directed the Browns to their first win of the season, but he wasn’t around at the end of the game to enjoy it. Griffin was pounded all afternoon by the Chargers and was taken out of the contest and diagnosed with a concussion. RG3 was hand-picked as the team’s quarterback, now it looks like Cody Kessler, with all his ailments, will finish out the year.
Joe Haden – Cleveland’s cornerback was having a nice rebound season for what has been a horrible defensive unit, so taking him out of the equation leaves some open space for Jones and whoever he’s throwing to. Don’t expect the Steelers to pass much in this game, but the opportunities will be there with Haden out due to a neck injury.
Key Stat
The Browns will be without several regulars as well, but for different reasons. While the Steelers plan to give time off to their stars on offense, the defense is licking its chops at the prospect of facing the Browns offensive line. Cleveland has surrendered the most sacks in the league by a wide margin and it’s been particularly ugly over the past five games. More than half of the Browns’ 62 sacks allowed have come in that span and the onslaught started in a Week 11 matchup with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh entered that game with one of the lowest sack totals in the league, but turned things around quickly. The Steelers ravaged Cleveland quarterbacks with eight sacks, knocking Kessler out with an injury. Including that game, Cleveland has done little to protect its quarterback, giving up 32 sacks, including nine last week against San Diego in a game they managed to win. I don’t think the Brownies will be so lucky this time around.
Free ATS Pick
Are the Steelers reserves better than Cleveland’s starters? It looks like we’ll get a chance to find out on Sunday. With the AFC North sewed up and no movement possible in their playoff seeding, Mike Tomlin will allow Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Maurkice Pouncey, and probably a few others a day of rest to get ready for the Wild Card game the following week. Tomlin’s plans have caused a serious tumble in the spread for this matchup. The Steelers opened as a 12.5-point favorite but the line has come all the way down to Pittsburgh -7.
There are pros and cons to playing regulars in a meaningless game, but the Steelers have spent a lot of energy to claim the division crown and why risk an injury when we saw what happened to the Raiders and Titans last week. Besides, there are plenty of bumps and bruises that need to be healed, so it makes plenty of sense to give the ball to Jones and Fitzgerald Touissaint. And the rest of the group will do just fine in claiming a season ending victory.
NFL Odds: Steelers 27, Browns 17
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