I’m sure that if Shad Khan knew his Jacksonville Jaguars would win a game the week after he fired his head coach, the move would have been made sooner. As fiercely loyal as the Jags’ owner was to Gus Bradley, the coach just didn’t reciprocate and that 14-48 record in four years simply wasn’t good enough. Bradley is a quality coach and will end up a defensive coordinator for some club that’s lucky to get him. In the meantime, the Jags can extend their win streak over the Indianapolis Colts to three with a Week 17 victory.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 17 game is set for Sunday, January 1, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5
Indianapolis Colts -4.5
Over/Under 47.5
Odds Analysis
Jacksonville hasn’t really owned anyone over the past several years, but they’ve had moderate success lately against the Colts. That could be a reason for the movement in the line. Indy opened at -7 and all the early spread wagers were on the visitors. That forced a dramatic drop in the spread to its current number, where the wagers started to even out and lean towards the Colts. These teams met across the pond in Week 3 with the Jags snaring a 30-27 victory as 1-point dogs. It was their second straight in the series. The Jags haven’t won in Indy since 2012, but they did cover in their last visit.
Injury Report
T.J. Yeldon – The revolving door at running back continues for the Jaguars. Yeldon, the team’s leading rusher, was placed on injured reserve after sustaining an ankle injury in the Tennessee game. Chris Ivory, who was originally brought in to be the No. 1 back, remains on the shelf with a hamstring issue and is unlikely to play. Denard Robinson is expected to go after missing three games with an ankle injury. Behind Robinson are unproven talents Corey Grant, Bronson Hill and Daryl Richardson.
Darius Butler – Indy’s defense was shredded by Derek Carr and the Raiders last week and that was with starting safety Butler in the lineup for parts of it. Butler exited with a concussion and was placed in the protocol. It’s doubtful we see him play on Sunday so Blake Bortles could take some shots against his backups.
Matchup to Watch
The Jaguars have had a difficult time keeping their running backs healthy most of the season and now Yeldon is on IR and Ivory is doubtful. So here’s what I see happening on Sunday. Doug Marrone is an innovative guy and while he’s auditioning for the permanent coaching job, he wants his guys to have fun and close out the season strong. By all reports Robinson will be available, and if you recall he was a quarterback at Michigan during his college days.
Look for some trickeration by the Jags with Robinson either in a Wildcat formation or on some kind of running back option play. There are several reasons for this. One, it takes a lot of pressure off Bortles, because we know he’s had a tendency to implode this season. It allows Robinson to use some of his natural skills, and those types of plays are always fun for the players to run. There may be only one time that kind of play is run and it may not be successful, but it does plant the seed and could open other areas of the field.
Free ATS Pick
These teams are headed in opposite directions but they’re going to end up in the same place. The Jags must feel like a giant weight has been lifted after finally getting a win. There were a lot of near misses in that nine-game losing streak and just getting the W is a significant step for this group. We’re not sure who the next coach is going to be, but all the players are fighting for jobs right now, because I don’t think there are many locked in on a team that has three wins.
Indy’s season essentially came to an end last week in Oakland and this time we can say Andrew Luck played a big part in it. He tossed a pair of interceptions and looked jittery in the pocket while the Raiders raced out to a big enough lead the Colts couldn’t come back. And it was typical of the bumpy season. Indy travelled west after putting together one of its better games in a thumping of Minnesota two weeks ago, but couldn’t sustain the momentum. While Chuck Pagano says his team is going all out to win, the Jaguars are, and I like their chances.
NFL Odds: Jaguars 26, Colts 23
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