The NFC North title and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs will be on the line for the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings in Game 256 of the NFL season.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Minnesota Vikings +3
Green Bay Packers -3
Over/Under OTB
ODDS ANALYSIS
It's really funny how things work in the NFL. A month and a half ago, the Packers had lost three straight games and looked like things were falling apart. They were underdogs on the road in Minnesota and won comfortably, a victory which seemingly ended the Vikings' chances of winning the NFC North.
Instead, the Packers have faltered a second time, a fall from grace which culminated with a 38-8 loss to Arizona last Sunday. Now, it's all falling apart again in Green Bay, while the Vikes, fresh off of a 49-17 destruction of the Giants in primetime, are riding high.
The stakes remain the same, though. Win and you've won your division. Lose and you're going on the road perhaps in just six days.
With stakes like that, it's easy to see why the oddsmakers opened up Green Bay at just -3, the value of home field advantage.
WHEN THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL
The Vikings badly need Teddy Bridgewater to have to do very little to win this game. He's averaging throwing the ball just 28.5 times per game, but he was forced to throw it 37 times against Green Bay in the first meeting. Minnesota QBs were sacked a total of six times on the day, and Adrian Peterson only had 45 yards on the ground with a touchdown.
That game was certainly out of character for the Vikings, though. They typically run the ball into the ground like they did against the Giants, and Peterson and Jerick McKinnon usually get plenty of work. If they do again in this one, live bettors should have a shot betting on the dog. If they don't, this game could get ugly. It's not that Bridgewater can't make the throws necessary to beat the Pack, but doing so on the road in the biggest game of his career isn't the ideal situation.
WHEN THE GREEN BAY PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Aaron Rodgers, perhaps the best deep ball thrower in the league, has just one completion for more than 40 yards in his last seven games, and that came on a Hail Mary against the Lions at the gun four weeks ago. There's just no aerial threat up the seam or down the sidelines like there usually is when Jordy Nelson is healthy, and it's killing this Green Bay offense.
Minnesota's secondary does a nice job of bending without breaking, and the front seven is going to have to get to Rodgers early and often to not give him the time to throw the ball down the field. The Cardinals sacked him nine times last week, and if that type of pressure is going to get to him on Sunday, Green Bay can pack its bags and get ready to go to Washington next week.
Live bettors need to key in on Eddie Lacy as well. When he's been at his best, the Packers have been at their best. However, in his last two football games, he's had a total of just 83 yards on 23 carries, and he's reverting back away from the man who looked so dominant against Dallas, Chicago and even this Minnesota team in prior weeks.
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