I guess we can toss Adam Gase’s name into the ring for Coach of the Year. His first season as a head coach started the way many others have for the Miami Dolphins, but the team turned things around and could be the hottest in the NFL heading into their Week 17 tussle with the New England Patriots. The Fins earned their first playoff berth since 2008 with last week’s win at Buffalo, their ninth in 10 games to put that brutal start behind them.
Watch this regular season Week 17 matchup live on Sunday, January 1, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -9.5
Miami Dolphins +9.5
Over/Under 44.5
Odds Analysis
The Dolphins haven’t officially named their starting quarterback for this matchup, but expect Matt Moore to at least play some of the game. That indecision has caused the line to soar in favor of the visitors. The Pats opened as 6-point chalk and with early money backing the Pats, the line has moved 3.5-points to New England -9. The Pats posted a 31-24 cover win when the teams met in Week 2, but the game wasn’t that close. New England built a 31-3 second half lead behind Jimmy Garoppolo and held on. Tom Brady has struggled in Miami losing his last three starts, but I don’t think that trend will continue.
Injury Report
Dont’a Hightower – Hightower missed the last game as he continues to mend from a knee injury. His absence wasn’t a factor against the feeble Jets, but it could be more impactful against the strong run game of the Dolphins and slowing down Jay Ajayi. The Pats can’t fall lower than a No. 2 seed so they might just give their linebacker another week to heal.
Isa Abdul-Quddus – The Dolphins safety exited last game with a neck injury and didn’t return. Miami’s secondary isn’t the deepest position group to begin with and could also be without Byron Maxwell for another contest as he recovers from an ankle issue. Tom Brady carves up some of the best defenses and could have a big day facing the depleted Miami secondary.
Key Stat
The Dolphins have given up a lot of yards on defense and rank 30th with an average of 381.7 allowed per game. But their bend but don’t break attitude has served them well over the course of the year. While they’ve given up big chunks of yardage, the Fins have allowed just 23 points per game to rank 14th in the league. The biggest reason for the difference is that the Dolphins have been able to get off the field at the right times.
Miami has allowed opponents to convert just 34.8 percent of their third down opportunities and will need to be at its best against the precision offense of the Patriots. That might be difficult with Maxwell and Abdul-Quddus likely missing from the secondary, and linebackers Jelani Jenkins and Kiko Alonso dealing with nagging injuries. And the Pats are pretty good at extending their own drives. They are third-best in the NFL converting 46 percent of their third down chances. It will be strength against strength and whoever succeeds will have a good chance of coming out with victory.
Free ATS Pick
Both teams are in the playoffs and the temptation to rest certain players is strong. However, both coaches say they’re going all out and when Bill Belichick says that, you have to believe him. Besides, the Pats can still lock up the No. 1 seed and home field advantage with a win and you know that has some importance. The Pats lost their final regular season game last year in Miami and finished in a tie for the top spot but lost out on the No. 1 seed due to a tie-breaker. That came back to haunt the Pats when they travelled to Denver for the AFC Championship game and lost. They can avoid all that with a win on Sunday.
The Dolphins can move up a spot in the playoff seedings but will play the Wild Card round on the road either way. The Fins exerted a lot of energy to get to this point and you can sense a heavy sigh coming from team headquarters. The public is wagering heavily on the Patriots causing a significant rise in the spread. The line has gone up 3.5 points since opening, but keep in mind that Brady hasn’t won a game in Miami in his last three visits. That streak will come to an end on Sunday, though.
NFL Odds: Patriots 24, Dolphins 20
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