If the Atlanta Falcons are going to get the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye in the playoffs, they’ll have to earn it. The New Orleans Saints have nothing riding on this game, but a win over their long-time southern rival will end a string of two consecutive 7-9 seasons. These two teams have played a home-and-home series as division opponents every year since 1970 and there is a strong hatred for each other – in a good way – that fuels one of the most underrated rivalries in football. They go at each other again in Week 17.
This matchup in Week 17 of the regular season will take place on Sunday, January 1, 2017, at 4:25 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints +6.5
Atlanta Falcons -6.5
Over/Under 56
Odds Analysis
There’s been little movement for this one with the line dropping back down to its opening at Atlanta -6.5 after a brief stay at -7. The Falcons won outright as 2.5-point dogs when they visited the Big Easy in Week 3, posting a 45-32 win that easily cashed the over on the closing total of 54. The over/under has been adjusted slightly with just a 2-point increase, making the opening total of 56 the highest on the board for the week. But would you expect anything less when the top two offensive clubs hook up?
Injury Report
Delvin Breaux – The Saints’ cornerback played only six games this season after missing a majority of the year with a leg injury. But when he was in the lineup, the defense played much better and the secondary was actually tough to throw against. He missed the last two games with a shoulder injury and the Saints surrendered 65 total points. He did not play in the first meeting when Matt Ryan threw for 240 yards and a pair of scores.
De’Vondre Campbell – Atlanta’s rookie linebacker has emerged as a defensive leader but is in jeopardy of missing another game as he remains in the concussion protocol. Campbell forced his way into a starting job mid-season after returning from an early ankle injury and somewhat solidified a porous group. His athleticism allows him to do many things on the field that his replacement, Paul Worrilow, can’t.
Matchup to Watch
It’s strength versus strength when the Falcons No. 1 scoring offense takes on the Saints’ No. 2 scoring offense, and I doubt fans of high scoring football games will be let down. Just so New Orleans doesn’t feel bad, they own the league’s top offense in terms of total yards while the Falcons rank second in that category. Both teams are among the top three in total yards per play and passing yards per game and dominate a number of the major offensive statistical categories.
Because these teams are so well balanced and led by MVP-caliber quarterbacks, it’s not surprising to see the total hit the board at an astronomical 56. The next highest total currently is 49 for the Packers-Lions Sunday night matchup. When the Saints and Falcons met in Week 3, they combined for 916 yards and 77 points, easily eclipsing the closing total of 54 for that game. Both teams thrive in a controlled environment and the defenses have been sketchy at best, so we could get another track meet on Sunday afternoon with the over being a good call.
Free ATS Pick
This game has all the makings of a free-for-all with two of the best offensive clubs in the NFL going after each other. The Falcons can secure a first-round bye with a victory so there is added incentive for them, unlike other clubs in playoff positions with no chance of improving their seeding. But that doesn’t mean a victory in a game of this magnitude. These two cities have always looked down on each other and I guess if you’re not from the area it’s tough to understand.
Plus there’s a carrot at the end of the stick for the Saints, who have a chance to finish at .500 for the first time in three seasons. It’s not quite what Sean Payton and his gang had in mind back in September, but it is a building block after a 0-3 start. However, the Falcons have too much riding on this one and playing at home will prove to be difference in a typical NFC South slugfest.
NFL Odds: Falcons 38, Saints 35
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