With just one more win, the New England Patriots will lock up the No. 1 spot in the AFC. The Patriots have dominated the conference during the Brady-Belichick era and are the favorite to claim the AFC yet again. However, we all know how important home field advantage is in the playoffs, and the Patriots don’t want to slip up at the very end and lose it to the Steelers. They will be motivated to beat the New York Jets on Sunday, who can’t wait for this season to be over.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 17 game is set for Sunday, December 31, 2017, at 1 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium.
NFL Opening Odds at BookMaker.eu
New York Jets +16
New England Patriots -16
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
New England is 11-2 against the Jets since 2011, with the two Jets wins both coming at home in overtime.
It’s pretty incredible that for the second straight year, the Patriots have been money to bet on. Last season, New England finished 16-3 ATS on its way to its fifth Super Bowl in the Tom Brady era. This year, the Pats are 10-5 ATS and have covered eight of their last nine. The books are typically making them large favorites, but this team blows teams out often.
The Jets have had a better year than expected. New York was derided as the worst team in the NFL heading into the season, and it’s win total dropped from 5.5 to 3.5 in the offseason. This has been a resilient bunch though and they have been able to defeat Jacksonville, Kansas City, and Buffalo. The Jets are 9-5-1 ATS on the year.
Player to Watch
With nothing to play for, the Jets benched Josh McCown two weeks ago even though he was having a decent year. Instead, they have again decided to start Bryce Petty, even though it is pretty clear that he is not a solution to the Jets quarterback problem.
You can’t blame the Jets for trying. McCown is a 38-year old journeyman who will probably be playing somewhere else next season. Meanwhile, Petty is still young. He is in his third season out of Baylor and was seen as a mid-round steal when he was drafted. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t panned out.
Petty has played in nine games over the last two seasons and the team has a record of 1-8 with him as the starter. He has only thrown for more than 200 yards twice, and he has 10 interceptions compared to just four touchdowns. Additionally, his 3.6 yards per pass attempt is abysmal.
There’s no doubt that this line is a good three to four points higher than it would be if McCown was starting.
Matchup to Watch
For the Jets to cover the number against the Patriots, they are going to need to be able to establish the run. New England’s run defense is ranked dead last in the league according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but you might never know that just from looking at box scores.
The last time these teams met, the run game wasn’t able to do much. The Jets picked up 74 yards on 24 carries and had to rely on McCown to move the ball through the air. He ended up having a great game to get the cover for New York, but it’s highly unlikely Petty will have similar success.
Free ATS Pick
This is an awfully big number. The oddsmakers are practically daring you to take the Patriots with a number like this. It’s rare to see teams as more than two touchdown favorites, however, the Pats have made a habit of covering spreads this big.
These teams met at the end of last season too. New England easily covered the spread as a 17-point favorite then, and I expect them to cover the big number this time too.
NFL Odds: Patriots 37, Jets 10
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