There will be no repeat Super Bowl champion, the Chiefs made sure of that with a resounding victory over the Denver Broncos on Christmas night, ending any hopes the Broncos had of sneaking into the tournament. The Oakland Raiders locked up their playoff berth two weeks ago, but their chances of actually doing anything in the second season hit a snag when Derek Carr went down with a broken fibula. It’s up to Matt McGloin to secure a top-two seed and first-round bye when the AFC West rivals hook up in Week 17.
Watch this regular season Week 17 matchup live on Sunday, January 1, 2017, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oakland Raiders +1.5
Denver Broncos -1.5
Over/Under 40
Odds Analysis
This game is crap shoot when it comes to betting. The Broncos have yet to name a starting quarterback and Gary Kubiak could split the difference between Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. The Raiders are going with their backup who has attempted just four passes all season, three of them coming last week. So it isn’t surprising to see the line jump as often as it has for this one. The total is intriguing, however. I don’t see a lot of points being scored and the total could fall. If you like the under, it may be best to get in now.
Injury Report
Derek Carr – The Raiders lost their ringleader when Carr sustained a broken leg in the third quarter of Saturday’s win over the Colts. Carr was having a Pro Bowl season and lifted Oakland from its depths back to relevancy in the league. McGloin completed a 19-yard pass to secure the win, just his fourth attempt of the season. Connor Cook will be the backup.
Derek Wolfe – Denver’s defensive end left the Kansas City game with a neck injury and probably will not play on Sunday. The defense had to deal with injuries all over the field this season causing a drop in production from the Super Bowl run of a season ago. Cornerback Kayvon Webster also exited last game to be evaluated for a concussion.
Matchup to Watch
Without a doubt the loss of Carr is a severe blow to the Raiders chances of a deep playoff run. But this is a team built around several different parts and not just the quarterback. Think Dallas Cowboys. Over there Dak Prescott was put into a situation where it would have been difficult to fail. He works behind a monster offensive line, relies on a powerful run game, and has some play-making receivers. That’s the exact situation McGloin is entering, and he’s no rookie. The Penn State product started six games in 2013 and has played sparingly the past three seasons as Carr’s backup. But he knows the offense and the staff knows what it has in him.
The game plan entering the Denver game should be simple. Expect the Raiders to run the ball and run it some more. They gained 210 yards on 37 attempts against the Colts last week in a glimpse of what’s to come. What makes Oakland’s situation unique is that it has three quality backs that can scamper. Latavius Murray, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington combined for 205 of those yards on 33 carries behind the second-best offensive line. The Broncos have had problems stopping the run all season and success isn’t in the cards.
Free ATS Pick
Don’t cash in your chips on the Raiders just yet. As mentioned above, this is a TEAM that has many functional parts. I’m not downplaying the loss of Carr, I just don’t think it’s the end of the season for them. The Raiders will pound the ball on the ground against a demoralized Broncos defense and when given the chance, McGloin will produce. His line is solid and the options in the backfield are abundant.
Besides, the Raiders will only need four Sebastian Janikowski field goals to win the game. The offense has gotten so putrid in Denver that Gary Kubiak isn’t telling us who’s going to start. Let’s see, there are two choices and neither have been very good. The Broncos have scored just 23 points in their last three games and likely won’t have much success against Khalil Mack and the Oakland defense. The Raiders will grind it out on the ground which sets up a low point total, and get the victory to clinch the division title. It’ll be a different story come playoff time, however.
NFL Odds: Raiders 20, Broncos 17
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