After managing just four wins a short season ago and suffering a myriad of injuries, the last way the San Diego Chargers needed to kick off their 2016 campaign was with a meltdown that turned a surefire win into an OT loss of epic proportions. The Jacksonville Jaguars will also be looking to get into the win column for the first time in Week 2 after battling the Packers tough but coming up short in their home debut.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 2 game is set for Sunday, September 18, 2016, at 4:25 p.m. ET at Qualcomm Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +3
San Diego Chargers -3
Over/Under 47
Odds Analysis
Extremely limited movement with the pointspread in this matchup with it remaining at -3 in favor of the Chargers from the open with only the juice fluctuating also in favor of the home team. Jacksonville won just one of its eight road games last season, so it hardly comes as a surprise to see the extra vig favoring the Chargers in this spot. What is strange however is that close to 80 percent of the bets already taken have come in on the Jags. That tells me more money has been wagered upon the home team.
Though both of these clubs played to overs last week, the 48 point opening total for this game has been bet down to 47. Each team suffering some injuries to key players last week likely plays a role in that.
Injury Report
Julius Thomas – “Orange Julius” reeled in all five of his targets for 64 yards and a touchdown last week, but suffered an ankle sprain that has him listed as questionable for this matchup. San Diego allowed Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce to go for 74 yards on 6 receptions last week. His big frame and the ability to move him all over the place will be sorely missed if he’s unable to go.
Keenan Allen – For a second straight season, Philip Rivers will have to do work without his favorite target. Allen ripped his ACL for a second straight season and is done. Now Rivers has to work with a greener group of wide receivers against a revamped Jacksonville back seven that more than held its own against Aaron Rodgers last week in limiting the Packers passing attack to just 199 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It’s possible San Diego plays more ball control here with dump offs to its running backs to shorten the game and keep Jacksonville’s offense on the sidelines. That would only help benefit under bettors.
Matchup to Watch
San Diego owned a middle of the road pass defense a year ago, but it let Eric Weddle go in free agency and is working in a bunch of new faces. It hardly clicked in Week 1 after the defense allowed Alex Smith to gouge them for 363 yards and 2 touchdowns. That doesn’t bode well for this matchup with Jacksonville possessing one of the best passing attacks in the league that just dropped 320 passing yards on a Packers secondary that might just be one of the best the league has to offer.
Blake Bortles will no doubt be letting it rip, and though he could be without the services of Thomas, he still has other major targets to get the ball to in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marcedes Lewis. If San Diego once again has issues defending the pass, kicking the season off in an 0-2 hole will be inevitable.
Free ATS Pick
Mike McCoy is currently the odds on favorite to be the first NFL coach fired this season. I don’t expect his odds to get any longer after this one either because his club is going to fall to 0-2 after the Jags take care of business. Even in defeat last week, Jacksonville impressed taking Green Bay’s punches and never giving up. After Allen went down, the Chargers went into a tailspin they never recovered from. San Diego is a snake bitten franchise right now. It’s just never healthy and it’s a shame because Rivers still has a couple good seasons left in him.
While the Chargers have covered each of their last five games after a straight up defeat, and own an incredible record against the pointspread at home versus the AFC South (14-1 ATS L/15), I’m simply just not a believer. I loved what I saw from Jacksonville last week. The moves made in the offseason made an immediate impact, and I fully expect them to go into Qualcomm on Sunday and put an end to their five game straight up and against the spread losing streak to the Chargers.
NFL Odds: Jaguars 28, Chargers 20
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